After Rick Santorum’s surprising showing in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, many observers asked, “Why didn’t Mitt Romney win? What explains Santorum’s late surge?” The answer lies at the core of contemporary Republican politics: they don’t have one candidate that appeals to their fractured base.
A recent Pew Research poll revealed the remarkable diversity in the US electorate. In 2012, Pew projects that 10% of potential voters, mostly young people, will not vote; Pew allocates the remaining 90% to three groups: “Mostly Republican,” 25%; “Mostly Independent,” 35%; and “Mostly Democratic,” 40%. (This reflects ideology not actual party registration.)
The “Mostly Republican” group includes “Staunch Conservatives” (11%) and “Main Street Republicans” (14%). Staunch Conservatives are older white voters who “take extremely conservative positions on nearly all issues – on the size and role of government, on economics, foreign policy, social issues and moral concerns. Most agree with the Tea Party and ... very strongly disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance.”
Romney is not well accepted by Staunch Conservatives because of his, supposedly, liberal record as governor of Massachusetts. These Tea Party radicals accuse Romney of being “Republican in name only” (RINO). They point out his transgressions: Romney approved of the TARP bank bailout; he designed the Massachusetts healthcare system that became the model for “Obamacare;” and his positions on values issues like abortion and gay rights have flip-flopped over the years. Romney has an additional problem because he is a Mormon. In a June 2011 Gallup Poll, 20% of Republicans and Independents indicate that they would not support a Mormon for President.
Romney’s religion was a factor in his poor showing in Iowa. A December Pew Research poll examining Republican voter attitudes about the presidential candidates found “high negatives for Romney among white evangelicals.”
A recent Gallup Tracking poll shows 34% of Republican respondents favor Romney, 14% want Newt Gingrich, 15% like Rick Santorum, and 13% prefer Ron Paul – with other candidates in single digits. (In the New Hampshire primary, Romney garnered 39%, Paul 23% and the others split the remaining 38%.)
As the campaign has progressed, Romney has taken increasingly conservative positions. Romney proposes a six-step approach to job creation. He would “reduce the corporate income tax rate to 25%.” He would accelerate free trade agreements. Romney would cut “non-discretionary Federal spending by 5%.” He would “cut red tape” by eliminating Federal regulations that “unduly burden the economy or job creation.”
To boost domestic oil production, he would “Direct the Department of the Interior to implement a process for rapid issuance of drilling permits.”
Finally, Romney would “pave the way to end Obamacare.”
At the beginning of his career Romney supported gay rights but in 2005 he stated his opposition to gay marriage and civil unions. Romney believes in man-made global warming but “is not certain to the extent that man is causing the change in the environment.” He advocates US energy independence that includes both reliance on renewables and energy sources such as “clean coal,” nuclear, and domestic oil – he supports construction of the Keystone pipeline.
Romney’s foes have gone on the attack and posted a video describing him as “corporate raider.” Romney co-founded Bain Capital and over 25 years amassed a fortune estimated at $200 million.
As one critic said, Bain Capital “is a classic ‘strip and flip’ shop – a private equity firm that made its money buying businesses and sucking profit out of them by any means possible.”
In American politics it’s axiomatic that to win the presidency you have to hold onto your base, break even with Independents and slice off a few votes from your opposition. Mitt Romney’s problem is that it doesn’t appear he can hold onto his Republican base, much less garner Independent and Democratic votes.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley, Calif., writer and former Silicon Valley executive. Email bburnett@sonic.net.By Bob Burnett
After Rick Santorum’s surprising showing in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, many observers asked, “Why didn’t Mitt Romney win? What explains Santorum’s late surge?” The answer lies at the core of contemporary Republican politics: they don’t have one candidate that appeals to their fractured base.
A recent Pew Research poll revealed the remarkable diversity in the US electorate. In 2012, Pew projects that 10% of potential voters, mostly young people, will not vote; Pew allocates the remaining 90% to three groups: “Mostly Republican,” 25%; “Mostly Independent,” 35%; and “Mostly Democratic,” 40%. (This reflects ideology not actual party registration.)
The “Mostly Republican” group includes “Staunch Conservatives” (11%) and “Main Street Republicans” (14%). Staunch Conservatives are older white voters who “take extremely conservative positions on nearly all issues – on the size and role of government, on economics, foreign policy, social issues and moral concerns. Most agree with the Tea Party and ... very strongly disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance.”
Romney is not well accepted by Staunch Conservatives because of his, supposedly, liberal record as governor of Massachusetts. These Tea Party radicals accuse Romney of being “Republican in name only” (RINO). They point out his transgressions: Romney approved of the TARP bank bailout; he designed the Massachusetts healthcare system that became the model for “Obamacare;” and his positions on values issues like abortion and gay rights have flip-flopped over the years. Romney has an additional problem because he is a Mormon. In a June 2011 Gallup Poll, 20% of Republicans and Independents indicate that they would not support a Mormon for President.
Romney’s religion was a factor in his poor showing in Iowa. A December Pew Research poll examining Republican voter attitudes about the presidential candidates found “high negatives for Romney among white evangelicals.”
A recent Gallup Tracking poll shows 34% of Republican respondents favor Romney, 14% want Newt Gingrich, 15% like Rick Santorum, and 13% prefer Ron Paul – with other candidates in single digits. (In the New Hampshire primary, Romney garnered 39%, Paul 23% and the others split the remaining 38%.)
As the campaign has progressed, Romney has taken increasingly conservative positions. Romney proposes a six-step approach to job creation. He would “reduce the corporate income tax rate to 25%.” He would accelerate free trade agreements. Romney would cut “non-discretionary Federal spending by 5%.” He would “cut red tape” by eliminating Federal regulations that “unduly burden the economy or job creation.”
To boost domestic oil production, he would “Direct the Department of the Interior to implement a process for rapid issuance of drilling permits.”
Finally, Romney would “pave the way to end Obamacare.”
At the beginning of his career Romney supported gay rights but in 2005 he stated his opposition to gay marriage and civil unions. Romney believes in man-made global warming but “is not certain to the extent that man is causing the change in the environment.” He advocates US energy independence that includes both reliance on renewables and energy sources such as “clean coal,” nuclear, and domestic oil – he supports construction of the Keystone pipeline.
Romney’s foes have gone on the attack and posted a video describing him as “corporate raider.” Romney co-founded Bain Capital and over 25 years amassed a fortune estimated at $200 million.
As one critic said, Bain Capital “is a classic ‘strip and flip’ shop – a private equity firm that made its money buying businesses and sucking profit out of them by any means possible.”
In American politics it’s axiomatic that to win the presidency you have to hold onto your base, break even with Independents and slice off a few votes from your opposition. Mitt Romney’s problem is that it doesn’t appear he can hold onto his Republican base, much less garner Independent and Democratic votes.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley, Calif., writer and former Silicon Valley executive. Email bburnett@sonic.net.
From The Progressive Populist, February 15, 2012
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