HBOs movie Game Change tells the story of Sarah Palins rise and fall as John McCains running mate in the 2008 presidential contest. It provides insight into the GOPs identity crisis thats produced this years demolition derby in the Republican primaries.
Game Change asserts that Palin was a desperate choice by the McCain campaign. Because they needed a dynamic vice-presidential candidate to stop Barack Obamas momentum, McCain and his advisers rushed the process and did not adequately vet Palin.
Then they discovered Palin had little knowledge of current events, much less foreign and domestic policy. At first they kept her isolated from the press and attempted to tutor her.
When that didnt work, and she gave several disastrous interviews, they had her memorize a script and emphasized Palins singular talent: Shes the best actress in American politics.
Republicans must recruit an actor to be their Presidential candidate because, at the national level, they have a near impossible task: unifying their diverse base and appealing to independents.
Republicans must nominate a candidate who is an actor, who projects different images to different voting blocs. That was true of Reagan voters didnt particularly like his policies but they loved the man. That was true of George W. Bush conservatives believed he was one of them, while Independents believed that he was outside the political mainstream: a uniter, not a divider.
Game Change reminds us that McCain started his presidential campaign with two enormous problems: Republican social conservatives didnt trust him and he wasnt an actor he didnt have the ability to enthrall diverse groups. The selection of Palin as his VP running mate made sense because she immediately captured the hearts of social conservatives and she was an actor for an instant she appeared to capture the hearts of Independents.
To win at the national level, the GOP needs an actor to both unify their base and bring in independents. At the moment, they dont have one.
A Pew Research poll allocated likely 2012 voters to three groups: Mostly Republican, 25%, Mostly independent, 35%, and Mostly Democratic, 40%. The Mostly Republican group includes Staunch Conservatives (11%) and Main Street Republicans (14%).
Staunch Conservatives favored candidate is Rick Santorum. Main Street Republicans are not as conservative, less concerned about social issues. Their favored candidate is Mitt Romney. Just outside the Mostly Republican group is a bloc of independents, Libertarians (10%), that typically vote for the Republican presidential candidate. Their favored candidate is Ron Paul.
The GOP could accept Romney as the nominee and force him to accept a social-conservative VP running mate who is also an actor this seasons Sarah Palin. That might be Michele Bachmann.
Republicans could muddle through their convention, nominate a ticket such as Romney and Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, and plan to defeat President Obama by suppressing the Democratic vote. Republicans would try to throw the election into the Electoral College and win the presidency by subverting the vote in swing states.
Because of their ideological identity crisis, Republicans have rough road ahead.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and retired Silicon Valley executive. Email firstname.lastname@example.org.
From The Progressive Populist, April 15, 2012
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