Forecasting the Midterm Elections in the Midwest

By BOB BURNETT

The 2018 midterm elections will occur on Nov. 6. Democrats need to win 23 seats to take back the House and two seats to gain control of the Senate. This week we look at 12 midwestern states where there are a handful of opportunities for the Democrats.

A February 4th ABC News/Washington Post poll suggests why Democrats look forward to Nov. 6: “Democrats lead by 14 points among likely voters ... But that reflects a vast 38-point Democratic lead in districts already held by Democratic members of Congress. In districts the [GOP] holds, by contrast, it’s a tight 45-51 percent Democratic vs. Republican contest.” Democrats also lead in enthusiasm: “They lead very widely among those who say it’s especially important to vote this year.”

A “blue wave” is predicted because experts believe that Democrats are more motivated to vote than are Republicans. Because most Democrats deplore Trump and his Republican Party, Dems are eager to curtail Trump by taking back the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.

Intensity of feeling should play a critical role in the November 6th elections. In the latest Quinnipiac Poll 57% of respondents disapproved of the job Trump is doing (38% approved), while 49% of the poll respondents disapproved strongly (29% approved strongly).

Notably, Trump is losing the support of women. The most recent Washington Post poll indicates that 65% of women disapprove of the job Trump is doing.

What is clear from the polls is that there is a big difference in how Trump is viewed in Red and Blue congressional districts. Red district voters support Trump: they feel he is doing a good job, ignore his lies, and believe the investigation into possible collusion with Russia is a hoax. Blue district voters have radically different feelings. This suggests that the 2018 outcome is going to be decided by swing districts. The balance of this article examines the swing districts in the Midwest.

Illinois: Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is up for reelection; the Cook Report rates this as a Toss Up. (The Democratic candidate is J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire heir and businessman.) There are 4 House races of interest:

IL 6 Roskam (R) Toss up

IL 12 Bost (R) Leans Republican

IL 13 Davis (R) Likely Republican

IL 14 Hultgren (R) Likely Republican

Indiana: One of the Republican primary targets is Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly; the Cook Report rates this race as a toss up.

Iowa: There are 3 House races of interest:

IA 1 Blum (R) toss up

IA 2 Loebsack (D) likely Democrat

IA 3 Young (R) leans Republican

Kansas: Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer, the former lieutenant governor, succeeded former Gov. Sam Brownback in January when Brownback was confirmed by the US Senate as Donald Trump’s Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. Colyer is running for a full term in a crowded Republican primary with Secretary of State Kris Kobach. shaping up as his chief rival, while eight Democrats are running; Cook rates this as likely Republican. There are 2 House races of interest:

KS 2 open (R) leans Republican

KS 3 Yoder (R) leans Republican

Kentucky: There is 1 House seat of interest; KY 6 Barr (R) is rated as lean Republican.

Michigan: Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, is term-limited out; Cook rates this race as a toss up. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is up for reelection; Cook rates this as likely Democrat. There are 2 House seats of interest:

MI 8 Bishop (R) lean Republican

MI 11 Open (R) toss up

Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton, is term-limited out; Cook rates this race as a toss up. Recently appointed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is up for two years remaining on the term; Cook rates this as a toss up. There are 4 House races of interest:

MN 1 open (D) toss up

MN 2 open (R) toss up

MN 3 Paulsen (R) lean Republican

MN 8 Nolan (D) toss up

Missouri: Democratic Sen. Clair McCaskill is high on the Republican’s hit list; Cook rates this contest as a toss up.

North Dakota: Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is also a big Republican target; Cook rates this as lean Democrat.

Ohio: The governor’s seat is open as Republican John Kasich is term-limited-out; Cook rates this a lean Republican. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is up for reelection; Cook rates this as lean Democrat.

Wisconsin: Conservative Republican Gov. Scott Walker is up for reelection; Cook rates this as lean Republican. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is up for reelection; Cook rates this as likely Democrat. There is 1 House race of interest: WI 6 Grothman (R); likely Republican.

In summary, in the Midwest Democrats have a good shot at picking up at least two governorships and three House seats.

Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer. He can be reached at bburnett@sonic.net

From The Progressive Populist, April 15, 2018

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