Iowa Results Seem to Fall Where Everyone Expected They Would: Undecided

While the media was having a fit over the confusion, the people who actually were involved in them appeared happy with the process and the results

By ART CULLEN

All the talk the week before was that half the Iowa caucus crowd remained undecided. nnBy caucus night on Feb. 3 at 6 p.m. when the doors opened in the Buena Vista University dining hall to Democrats in Storm Lake precinct 4, just one person walked in uncommitted. Mike Kelly, a wind development project manager, immediately sat down with the Elizabeth Warren camp.

Tim Horsey, who owns an insurance agency, said he finally made up his mind that morning. He settled on Pete Buttigieg, who got the most votes of the 126 Democrats who were there when the caucus bell rang in at 7pm.

“I was going back and forth every day between Pete and Bernie,” said Horsey.

His son, Bazyl Horsey, delivered the speech exhorting the attendees to support Sanders, while the dad settled in with his Buttigieg neighbors.

“He will fight for us!” Bazyl declared.

The Buttigieg table, 30 of them, applauded enthusiastically for Bazyl. The Warren supporters clapped for the Joe Biden precinct captain. There were none of the deep divisions evident among Democrats over which the chattering class chips its teeth. These were all neighbors, after all, who had to be told by the caucus chair to stay in their own corners and quit kibitzing with each other across camps so accurate counts could be taken.

Craig and Sue Boyd of Storm Lake came in split between Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, and they too made up their minds late. He went with Buttigieg, she with Klobuchar.

That’s how the caucuses work: neighbors get together and hear from each other, even husbands and wives, then move into their respective preference groups. Each group needed 19 votes to meet a 15% viability threshold spelled out in state party rules.

Andrew Yang had 14 people at Storm Lake 4, not enough. Supporter Marquis Dominique, a Buena Vista University student, said he voted for Donald Trump four years ago because he was fed up with the system. When Yang couldn’t float, he switched to Sanders to see if he can beat the president. But he said he would neot vote for Sanders in November; he would go third-party because all the Democratic candidates are part of the problem. He has given up on Trump for his lack of respect for the military. “I’m a military brat,” he said.

Rob Smith, who delivered the speech for Yang, ended up moving over to caucus with Klobuchar, who tied with Warren at 20 votes each. Biden had 16 on the first cut, and they were scrambling for more. After that tally was read, viable campaigns sent their ambassadors to the unviable tables begging them to come over.

Biden supporters worked the Yang crowd and thought they had picked up three to remain alive. But Sam Prell, a Warren supporter, was working to peel off Biden supporter Shelby O’Bannon for a solid 15 minutes trying to get her to move.

“I won’t let her go,” said her best pal, Whitney Robinson, who had just committed to Biden that day, having also considered Warren.

Biden staffer Camillo Haller intervened when Prell ran out of breath.

“They’re just trying to keep us not viable. That man deserves a delegate to the county convention,” Haller told O’Bannon, referring to the former vice-president.

She stuck with Biden. He remained viable in the precinct.

But not across Iowa. Biden failed to reach 15% in key Democratic precincts in Ames (home of Iowa State University) and in Des Moines. This might be the nosedive that the pundits had been predicting.

Chrissy Garcia was delighted that Sanders put in a good showing with 26 voters. “I’ve been following him for eight years, and my hope is for him to get it this time,” she said.

Zayra Sanchez said she fell for Sanders when he held a rally a week ago at the hotel at which she works. “He talked to me. He was very sweet. That’s when I made up my mind. He got me.”

She had dabbled with Warren.

But Sanders swept Latinos in Storm Lake. With more than 1,000 Latino registered voters, a special Spanish-speaking precinct was set up at a café in downtown Storm Lake. Sanders got all 105 votes from that precinct.

That appears who came out on top narrowly across Iowa: Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren, though as this is written we still await the final tally. In Des Moines and Iowa City (home of the University of Iowa), the biggest precincts were split between the two progressives and Buttigieg. In Dubuque, a river town, manufacturing center and union stronghold, Buttigieg won, followed by Biden, Sanders and Warren. Biden had launched his Iowa campaign in Dubuque and had strong endorsements from local politicians.

The Sanders-Warren performance validates the economic anxiety that pervades the midwest as farm bankruptcies rise, manufacturing exports slump amid worker layoffs and strikes, and diabetics can’t afford insulin. Prell, the Warren supporter, lifted his shirt in front of the caucus crowd to display drainage tubes from a recent surgery that he could only get two hours away because doctors wouldn’t see him in Storm Lake on his government insurance policy, he said. “It’s got to change,” Prell said.

Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Biden appeared to punch a ticket to New Hampshire as the official results were still not available knocking on midnight in Iowa. Klobuchar ran strong in rural areas in the northern part of the state, as expected, but could not mount a surge that would give her viability everywhere.

And because of the delay in reporting results, the word the following day was that the Iowa caucuses are done. They are too complicated. They report first choices and second choices, and the media was having a fit over the confusion. The people who actually were involved in them appeared happy with the process and the results.

“Whoever gets it has 110% of my support,” said local insurance agent Clark Fort, a longtime Democrat and veteran of many caucuses. “I’ve been thinking about this every day since 2016. Whoever can win is best. They’re all pretty close.”

Art Cullen is editor of The Storm Lake Times in Northwest Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing in 2017. He is managing editor of The Progressive Populist and a columnist for The Guardian, where this appeared, and author of the book “Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope in America’s Heartland,” recently released in paperback.

From The Progressive Populist, March 1, 2020


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