Recently, President Trump appointed Dr. Scott Atlas, former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution as a member of his COVID-19 advisory panel. The Hoover Institution is an American public policy think tank and research institution. The National Review describes it as “...a conservative atoll in a progressive sea.” Dr. Atlas is, without question, a distinguished neuroradiologist, but he is not a specialist in infectious diseases or epidemiology. His qualification seems to be agreement with President Trump’s opinions.
Speaking on Fox News, where he has been a regular contributor, Dr. Atlas said, “We’ve got to keep in mind what we’re trying to do here.” He added, “You don’t eradicate the virus by locking down. You minimize the damage here and remember that the harms of a lockdown are severe. The lockdown itself kills people, destroys families, prevents education of our children.” By opening up the economy, Dr. Atlas hopes to reach a state of “herd immunity” where the majority of the population has achieved immunity to COVID-19 and could no longer infect others.
An article in the MIT Technology Review (May/June 2020) explains the concept of herd immunity. The abstract reads “There are basically three ways to stop COVID-19 for good. One involves extraordinary restrictions on movement and assembly, as well as aggressive testing, to interrupt its transmission entirely. The second is a vaccine. A third is potentially effective but horrible to consider: just wait until enough people catch the disease. If the virus keeps spreading, eventually so many people will have been infected and become immune—as long they survive—that the outbreak will fizzle out on its own as the germ finds it harder and harder to find a susceptible host. This is known as herd immunity.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advised cautious optimism regarding the availability of a vaccine in the forseeable future, but warned about both reopening the economy both too soon or too late. In a May 2020 interview Dr. Fauci said “We can’t stay locked down for such a considerable period of time that you might do irreparable damage and have unintended consequences, including consequences for health.” However, he also warned that states that rush reopening without adequate precautions would be turning the clock back. He warned against efforts to reopen the economy without proper precautions, including mask wearing and social distancing.
What might be considered a controlled experiment in Dr. Atlas’ recommendations failed badly. Sweden, in contrast to other European countries, took a very relaxed attitude towards COVID-19, with no significant lockdown or broad-scale testing. In The Lancet (8/8/20) a number of experts from the Karolinska Institute wrote “Despite similar epidemic start dates, population densities, and cultures... Sweden had reported seven times more COVID-19 deaths per person than Finland and Norway, and three times more than Denmark.”
The MIT paper estimates that “… nearly three-quarters of the population would have to be immune before (herd immunity) kicked in … What are the costs of getting there? Whether it happens at 50% or 80%, the implication is that billions will be infected and millions killed around the world before herd immunity takes over.”
The Guardian (3/20/20) reported “As Donald Trump pushed to re-open the US economy in weeks, rather than months, the lieutenant governor of Texas (Dan Patrick) went on Fox News to argue that he would rather die than see public health measures damage the US economy, and that he believed “lots of grandparents” across the country would agree with him.” The report was headlined “Older people would rather die than let COVID-19 harm US economy – Texas official”
Whether reopening a state benefits the economy is questionable. Sweden, which did not have a severe lockdown, is still expecting an economic contraction between 7 and 10 points for this year, in line with the European Commission’s forecast for the eurozone for an economic contraction of 7.75%.
Sam Uretsky is a writer and pharmacist living in Louisville, Ky. Email sdu01@outlook.com.
From The Progressive Populist, October 1, 2020
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