The Next Pandemic

By GEORGE NEWMAN and ROB CAUGHLIN

In 1905, when the author George Santayana wrote the often-quoted “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” America had never experienced a pandemic. It was yet to come in the form of the Spanish flu in 1918.

That outbreak brought death to 675,000 in the US and 500 million worldwide.

The decisions made by our government in 2020 appear to prove Santayana correct. The current death toll from Covid-19 is 211,000 and still rising.

But even before we are through this current pandemic, it’s time to ask what went wrong so we can we be better prepared for the next epidemiological crisis.

Our role models should be the nations or in some instances individual groups which avoided the pandemic altogether.

New Zealand, for all intents and purposes, has been free of the virus since it placed a virtual bubble over itself early on. There are other nations that have taken similar measures.

On a much smaller scale, a pastor, Derrick DeWitt, who operates a nursing home in a low-income area of Baltimore, ordered a “full lockdown” even as President Trump declared on national television that the coronavirus was a “hoax.” Pastor DeWitt’s leadership and decisions resulted in zero deaths from COVID-19 at his facility.

What is being done currently to prepare our nation for the next pandemic? Answer: Not much. At least nothing that we know about.

In the future, at first report of a threatening contagious disease anywhere in the world, our leaders must take decisive action quickly. Waiting to see what happens is not a plan.

We must be prepared to immediately cast a protective “bubble” over the US. All airports, seaports and points of entry should be closed. Incoming visitors would be barred and returning citizens would be required to go into quarantine for 14 days and be monitored to assure compliance.

The president should have the responsibility for declaring the emergency, but the plan would have been drawn well in advance, possibly years ahead, by the administration, Congress and panels of experts.

While the president would hold the sole decision-making power to activate the plan, there would remain opportunity for the Congress to later review the action. If closing down turns out to have been unnecessary, it’s an easy matter to reverse course.

Meanwhile, once the bubble is in place, life can go on without need of lockdowns, wearing masks, social distancing.

Schools and colleges would remain open. The same for restaurants, bars, sporting events, beaches and just about everything.

Such a plan eliminates the discord and confusion that puts the lives of citizens, health care workers and first responders at risk.

How would we deal with commerce and trade? There would be designated ports of entry for arriving imports operated under strict supervision ensuring that all shipments are inspected and quarantined.

And while there might be some American businesses that are affected, such as exporters of manufactured goods and agriculture products, every effort would be taken to make these businesses whole, including buying their products for strategic reserve, assisting them in switching production to items that are needed and can no longer be imported or providing outright financial aid.

Life could remain near to normal. We could still travel and take vacations anywhere within the United States.

We must learn from this experience and begin to plan now for the next pandemic. We can’t afford to be unprepared again.

George Newman is a retired journalist in Tucson, Ariz. Rob Caughlan is an environmentalist who worked for the EPA and served in the Carter White House.

From The Progressive Populist, November 1, 2020

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