The famous Benjamin Franklin line was “A republic, if you can keep it.” Nobody said anything about a democracy. The result has been a government which was, in large part, controlled by the party with the lower number of votes in national elections. Republicans are favored in rural areas, which represent 97% of the country’s land mass but only 19.3% of the population. The remaining 3% of the land mass is home to more than 80% of the population. As a rule, urban dwellers vote for Democrats, rural people vote Republicans.
The results of the decennial census showed, if anything, a further division of urban vs rural. Metropolitan areas grew by 9% compared with only 1% growth for smaller areas. Less than half of the nation’s 3,143 counties saw any population increases over the past decade while 81% of metropolitan areas grew. On a state by state basis, the gains and losses following the 2020 census largely continue a pattern in recent decades where states in the Midwest and Northeast have lost seats because their population growth has stagnated, while states in the South and West have gained seats because their populations have increased. At the same time, there has been growth in the population centers of red states, and loss in the rural areas. The web site fivethirtyeight.com concluded:”
As a result, we can now say with finality that Republicans will control the redrawing of 187 congressional districts (43%) — or 2.5 times as many as Democrats (who will redraw 75 districts, or 17 percent). There are also 167 districts (38 percent) where neither party will enjoy exclusive control over redistricting (either because of independent commissions or split partisan control). And, of course, there are six districts (1%) that won’t need to be drawn at all (because they are at-large districts that cover their entire state).”
Still, there are patterns which favor the Democrats, since the anticipated gerrymandering will favor the Democrats. The districts must contain approximately equal populations, and as the cities grow, it will become more difficult to follow the traditional methods of district apportionment. There are two, or perhaps 2.5 methods of gerrymandering: cracking, packing, and a combination of the two. Cracking is dividing your opponent’s district between two or more of you own districts so that the opposition loses a seat. Packing is pushing your opponents into one or two seats, while the 0.5 method combined the two methods following the method originated by Elbridge Gerry, following tortuous pathway along a road, cracking and packing alternately depending on circumstance. While we think of states as red or blue, most states have major population centers surrounded by rural areas. When the legislature of a red state tries to crack an urban center, it may be forced to shift a larger number of Democrats into rural districts, creating a purple district.
The best example is Maricopa County in Arizona, which includes Phoenix and has been subject to repeated recounts and audits of the 2020 election. Maricopa County is located in the south-central part of the US state of Arizona. According to the 2020 census, the county’s population was 4,420,568, making it the state's most populous county, and the fourth-most populous in the US. It contains about 62% of Arizona's population, making Arizona one of the most centralized states in the nation. Phoenix also leads the country in 10-year population growth, adding almost 260,000 people since 2010, an 18.1% population increase.
While Arizona's 11 electoral votes have traditionally gone to Republicans, Maricopa County has increasingly turned purple. This is largely due to shifting demographics, an influx in people moving to Phoenix from other states and a growing Latino population. It is also home to a large urban center in Phoenix, fifth largest city in the US. An attempt to crack Maricopa County would lead to transferring votes from a blue center to one which has been safely red, making a Republican win less certain.
In Illinois, the state lost population overall, but Chicago gained 2% with the greatest gains among Latino and Asian residents. While the Drudge Report described a flight from New York, and the state did lose one congressional seat, New York City continued to grow. Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted: “The Big Apple just got bigger!
The new Census Bureau data shows New York City grew to 8.8 million New Yorkers, and we love every single one of you (yes, even YOU)!
This is what happens when you invest in pre-K for all, safe streets and working families.”
California also lost a seat in Congress, but ABC news reported, “2020 Census results show most growth in suburban SoCal areas, fueled by increasing diversity.” The pattern continues in Texas where the Houston metropolitan area added the most new residents overall, increasing by more than 1.2 million. The Dallas/Fort Worth metro added almost 1 million new residents.
While the Republicans may recapture the House in the next election, the patterns show that the time they are ‘a-changing – for the better.
Sam Uretsky is a writer and pharmacist living in Louisville, Ky. Email sdu01@outlook.com.
From The Progressive Populist, October 1, 2021
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