The first numbers from the 2020 census are beginning to dribble out. The entire US population has grown to more than 331 million from 308 million in 2010. Non-white populations have grown in comparison to white populations. Every state has gained people, but some less than others. Urban populations have mostly gained while rural communities have mostly lost.
An important part of the shift is that representation in Congress will change with a seat lost here and a seat gained there. States losing representatives are California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — all states with important labor populations that have been shafted in recent years. The states that have gained seats are Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. Texas gained two seats.
We should pay attention, whether our state is a winner or loser. There will be redistricting to draw new lines for US Congressional districts, meaning that clumps of population can be zoned in or out of their current district. That puts a lot of power in the hands of the redistricting group. New district lines can isolate populations, especially minority populations. Or split them into little pieces so that the group can win nowhere. Fair districting means that lines include members of many demographics, so that political races result in open discussion to solve problems.
One popular and unfair technique is to loop parts of urban areas together with skinny rural corridors, creating a heavily urban district, even if the urban places are separated by large populations of rural areas. Such “gerrymandering” can ensure that a Democrat victory in the city is more than balanced by two Republican wins in the rural area.
In my state of Missouri, a ballot initiative in 2018 called CLEAN specified that a state demographer would be responsible for drawing the new lines. Redistricting would be based on creating districts with equal population, partisan fairness and competitiveness, and creating territories shaped in a logical manner. The top considerations were equal population and competitive fairness.
The CLEAN ballot initiative won the state’s popular vote with 62% voting to pass. Sensible people were ecstatic, but the Republican majority in the statehouse was dismayed. In 2020, Republicans presented a new vote, which was awkwardly worded and heavily promoted by special interest groups like American Farm Bureau. It passed, repealing CLEAN. Now, forget having a legitimate demographer working on the districts. The governor, currently Republican Mike Parson, has the power to appoint a “nonpartisan” commission.
It is hard to see how the new law will affect Missouri. Census numbers are just coming out, and the exact block-by-block, or county-by-county demographic numbers will not be available for months. But many states have seen Republican lawmakers manipulate the voting process so that votes swing in their favor even if demographic information goes the other way. The Brennan Center for Justice records 19 states enacting 33 laws restricting voter access.
Driven more by fear than by facts, aided by repetition from Trump supporters that the last election was corrupt, the new laws are reactions to the growing numbers of Asian, Hispanic, African-American and other non-white populations. The Southern Poverty Law Center calls a new Georgia law “sweeping,” because it covers such diverse actions as creating “onerous” identification requirements for absentee voters and banning volunteers from bringing water or food to voters standing in line. A Florida law requires organizations that help with registration to claim that they “might not” get the registration materials to the county government in time for an election. One voting rights volunteer says the disclaimer sends a message to a potential voter, saying, “… you might just throw my registration away? Why should I bother at all?”
Other, more subtle discriminatory actions, like limiting the number of polling places or making polling places hard to find or impossible to get to. Texas, winner of two new Congressional seats, has closed 750 polling places since 2013. The closures have been in areas dominated by minorities. According to The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, Dallas County, Texas, which is 41% Latino and 22% African-American, has closed 74 polling places. Explanation from the government is that there is an effort to make voting centralized. I’ll let you answer the question of how that would affect turnout in the rural areas of your county.
Districting so that more candidates have a fair shot of winning makes for more interesting elections, with more stimulated discussion about issues and more enthusiasm for going to the polls. Unfair districting means lousy turnout. In 2020, when both presidential candidates seemed to have a shot at a win, Missourians turned out in record numbers—a whopping 70%. And that was at the height of the pandemic and fears about congregating in public places.
While we can’t know yet how redistricting will affect coming elections, we can work to keep voters engaged. Watch for the census details to come out and be ready to react to changes in the voting procedures in your state.
Margot Ford McMillen farms near Fulton, Mo., and co-hosts “Farm and Fiddle” on sustainable ag issues on KOPN 89.5 FM in Columbia, Mo. She also is a co-founder of CAFOZone.com, a website for people who are affected by concentrated animal feeding operations. Her latest book is “The Golden Lane: How Missouri Women Gained the Vote and Changed History”. Email: margotmcmillen@gmail.com.
From The Progressive Populist, November 15, 2021
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