The Politics of Climate Risk Adaptation

By N. GUNASEKARAN

The vulnerabilities of less-developed countries and the world’s poorest countries to climate change were reflected in the Working Group II report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released on Feb. 28. The report stated that the average surface temperature of the Earth increased by a mean value of 1.07 degrees Celsius above that of the pre-industrial era.

Science has also proved beyond doubt that the world has already been reaching the adaptable limits at 1.1 degrees Celsius (°C). There will be more disasters at 1.5° C. This was strongly attested by the latest IPCC group.

The IPCC report had confirmed the worsening impacts of climate change in poor countries, particularly in Asia, where countries are suffering irreversible harm due to climate change. The survival of many Asian countries situated in the coastal region is at stake.

The report stated that the degradation and loss of coral reefs will affect about 4.5 million people in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The people are losing their homes and livelihoods, causing devastation to the most vulnerable communities, such as those depending upon fishing. About 40 million people in South Asia will have to move over the next 30 years due to lack of water, crop failure, storm surges and other disasters.

The people are being displaced by the loss of livelihoods due to extreme weather, storms and flooding. Climate crisis has become one of the important causes for migration. Today, one in three migrants in the world are from Asian countries.

Climate change would have the biggest negative impact on Asian crop yield in countries like Bangladesh, India and Pakistan.

Rising extreme weather is causing increased risks in South Asian countries, including India due to floods, landslides, and droughts, cyclones, heatwaves and cold waves, and a rising sea level. The dense population and low household income in the region are the factors that would aggravate the vulnerability and risks for the people.

While climate conditions are worsening in Asian countries, the Big Powers do not come forward to help them. Instead, they are constantly urging the poor countries to strictly embrace adaptive measures and to follow policies and actions to make their countries climate-resilient, disaster-proof.

The developed countries constitute 18% of humanity but have contributed 60% of the cumulative emissions so far from the pre-industrial era. Third world countries have all along demanded that the rich countries have to deliver their promises made to poor countries related to climate finance, loss and damage and reducing emissions.

As stated in the statement of the Less Developed Countries (LDC) group representing 46 poor countries severely affected by climate change, the world must pursue “both mitigation and adaptation at speeds and scales beyond what we have seen.”

The rich countries committed to deliver $100 billion in climate finance by 2020. But they didn’t fulfill their commitment. The consequent shortfall for the poor countries in adapting to the disastrous effects of climate change was very much substantial, considering their shrinking economies.

Though the worsening impacts of climate change was global, the Asian countries and less-developed countries are disproportionately affected. About $2.8 trillion to $4.7 trillion of GDP in Asia annually will be at risk by 2050, due to loss of outdoor working hours caused by increased heat and humidity. The Asian GDP at risk could be more than two-thirds of the total annual global GDP impact.

In 2021, the UN Climate Change Conference, referred to as COP26, held in Glasgow, United Kingdom, in November 2021, all countries agreed to revisit 2030 targets to bridge the gap between what had been done and what is needed to limit warming to 1.5° C. However, without the sincere cooperation of advanced countries, especially the G20, the onerous task of limiting global warming would not progress.

Because, it is very unfair to put heavy financial burdens on the poor countries to meet the challenge of global warming. It will result in curtailment of their growth of productive capabilities, which is very vital for them to attain a basic level of well-being under this juncture and for future.

With increasing Asia’s significant infrastructure needs, the financing of climate adaptation measures is an important challenge. They have to maintain growth momentum, eradicate poverty, and also respond to the climate crisis.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimated that the region might have to invest $1.7 trillion a year in infrastructure through 2030 along with about 2% ($40 billion per year) for climate risk adaptation.

But, the ADB offered neoliberal prescriptions to meet this financial burden. Their suggestion was that it could be shared between the public and private sectors.This would help big multinational corporations to reap huge profits in many ways.

In spite of many constraints, Asian countries are already responding to the adaptation and mitigation challenges of climate change. In this context, the wealthy nations should realize their responsibilities and respect the voices of the developing countries. The resolution of the climate crisis must be based on the foundations of equity. The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities is important. The developed countries must take the lead in climate action.

N. Gunasekaran is a political activist and writer based in Chennai, India.

From The Progressive Populist, April 15, 2022

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