Rural Routes/Margot Ford McMillen

Strange Poll Results

So, the midterms are behind us and some polls were right and some were wrong and the pundits have hours more of gabbing to do — what went wrong? What went right? Who knew what and when did they know it? Gosh, there’s an entire industry behind analysis of polls that, let’s face it, are random at best.

It’s easy to figure out why the polls are so often wrong. It’s because they’re calling my friend, we’ll call her Rita.

I don’t think that my friends are more mischievous than anyone else on the planet, but maybe we never have time for pollsters, and we have strategies with which to avoid them except for one friend who, yes, Linda is mischievous, says, “mess with them ...”

My personal strategy is pretty simple. I answer the phone. Somebody says, “Hello. Is this (my (or your) name here)?” and I say, “Speaking” because I heard that you should never say “yes” to an unknown person on the phone. They may be recording and use your snippet of a “yes” or a “no” to sign you up for a non-approved action, like buying a subscription to the New York Times. Or something equally sketchy.

So, phone answered, the person might say, “This is Hannah from the Accurate Polling Corporation and I’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming election … this conversation may be recorded for quality purposes ...” (Sometimes, they say, “for training purposes.”)

Sometimes, Hannah is, itself, a recording. Other times, Hannah is a real person! An employed real person! Then I feel a little guilty for what I’ll do next. Because, as soon as Hannah plunges into the first question, I put the phone down on the nearest table and continue whatever task I was doing before the call. Stirring the beans, typing on the computer, throwing out junk mail. Often, Hannah chatters along for a minute or two before realizing that maybe I’ve had a heart attack. I’ll hear, “Hello? Hello? Are you there?” and then, finally, a click. I’ve used this strategy for years and Hannah never calls back.

I prefer my strategy to that of my friend, we’ll call her Rita, who always answers, always engages and always ends up mad at herself. And, I prefer my strategy to that of another friend, Linda, who likes to “mess with them ...”

Linda has one of those phones that rings once, then voices the caller-ID by saying “Call from Illinois” or “Call from Uncle Joe” or whatever. So when she hears “Call from Accurate Polling ...” she runs to the phone. To the question, “Is this (your name here) ...” she answers, “This is Linda. Thanks for calling.”

So the data collector, let’s call him Jimmy, launches into his first question, which is always, “Are you a registered voter?” to which she answers in an encouraging way, “I am.” Next, Jimmy asks if she is planning to vote, what county she is in, how long she has lived at her current address … All of which she answers respectfully and honestly.

Jimmy then goes on. And Rita answers everything in the opposite of what she believes. Will she vote for Amendment A? She says no, even though she has studied the issue and knows she will. Then, she explains her answer with jibberish like the opposite of what she believes.

For our last election, she said she was against the right marijuana question (there were three on the Missouri ballot) and for the wrong ones. She was against minimum wage and for bingo! And, then …

Having established a pretty tight relationship with Jimmy, she asks him where he is calling from. Let’s say Jimmy is in Atlanta. “I’ve never been to Atlanta ...” she says … “What’s it like?”

“It’s OK,” Jimmy said, “Kind of hot sometimes...”

And then, she continues. She asks about his co-workers, how many are there? Are any of them single? Was he? Yes, it turned out, he was. Now, I should tell you, Linda is a happily married woman and her husband knows about her messing around.

She offers that she’d like to go to Atlanta, and she has a lot of frequent-flyer miles saved up. Would Jimmy like to meet for lunch? Did he like sushi? Was there a good sushi place near the airport? She’d just fly in, have lunch with Jimmy, and go home.

To all of this, Jimmy answers dutifully, whether the conversation was being recorded for quality purposes or not … they always leave a little doubt … Is it being recorded?

Because, if it’s being recorded for quality (or training) purposes, don’t you think they’d cut into the ones where the callee asks the caller to have lunch? They don’t!

So, next time you hear talk about a poll, think of Linda … and don’t even think about trusting the answers of strangers!

Margot Ford McMillen farms near Fulton, Mo., and co-hosts “Farm and Fiddle” on sustainable ag issues on KOPN 89.5 FM in Columbia, Mo. Her latest book is The Golden Lane: How Missouri Women Gained the Vote and Changed History. Email: margotmcmillen@gmail.com.

From The Progressive Populist, December 1, 2018

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