With Amazon HQ2, Be Careful What You Wish For

By SAM URETSKY

I love New York. There are lots of arguments about what’s the greatest city in the world, as in can King Kong beat Godzilla. Batman’s Gotham and Superman’s Metropolis are both supposed to represent New York. The Marvel universe is, if anything more NY Centric since Daredevil is limited to Hell’s Kitchen (from 34th to 59th street, west of 8th avenue.) Hearts may be left in San Francisco, and Texas cities are sung all over the map from Galveston to Luckenbach with a stop at El Paso, but New York can claim songs about the Brooklyn Bridge and the 59th Street Bridge. Probably only London Bridge can match them.

According to the Endangered Language Alliance (ELA), Queens New York, one of the “Outer Boroughs,” is the place on Earth where more languages are spoken than any other. Considering that the United Nations is located in Manhattan, that’s an impressive record for Queens. In today’s political climate it may seem improbable, but the city has a Department of Immigrant Affairs dedicated to helping immigrants find their way in a new city and a new nation.

Amazon seems to agree with me.

When Amazon announced its plans to establish a second headquarters, HQ2, there was extensive betting on which cities would win the prize. On Nov. 12, one day before the final announcement, the Bovada betting site announced the final odds: “…with Northern Virginia as the heavy -290 favorite. Boston (+600), Washington, D.C. (+1000), Atlanta (+1000), Toronto (+1200), Austin (+1400), Pittsburgh (+2000), Montgomery County, Maryland (+2500), Raleigh (+3000) and Philadelphia (+4000) ….” New York City was near the bottom at +6000, tied with Dallas, Denver, Nashville and Indianapolis. Miami came in last at +8500.

When the results were announced, Gov. Cuomo, Mayor DiBlasio, and the Las Vegas long-shot bettors were the only ones who seemed pleased. The issue, however improbably, brought the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal together. The Times editorial board wrote “The subways are a shambles. The company couldn’t have chosen New York for its affordable housing because, as in Seattle, there isn’t any. As for outdoor recreation, our beaches and parks are jammed, our soccer fields overrun. There’s a lot more green space elsewhere. Cost of living? Hardly a selling point, unless you are seeking to increase your operating expenses. And no, Amazon didn’t choose New York because it has real bagels — although it couldn’t hurt.”

The Wall Street Journal editorial staff had this to say “New York’s Democratic kingpins Andrew Cuomo and Bill de Blasio are getting hit from right, left and center for showering Amazon with some $3 billion in subsidies. The corporate welfare is even more outrageous when juxtaposed with New York City’s dilapidated housing that the governor and mayor have long neglected.”

The Times had more to say on the subject of cities and states offering financial inducements to large corporations: “Texas schools have lost an estimated $4 billion to the state’s economic development program and Cleveland schools lost over $34 million in one year alone. New Jersey’s budget is at risk of bleeding $1 billion a year, while Michigan’s liability for its business tax credits is set to soar to $9.38 billion over the next two decades and incentives have already led to a $325 million budget deficit.”

The reality is that New York and the Washington DC region had what Amazon was really after. Talent – tech specialists. According to the Brookings Institution “Looking at all US metropolitan areas by the number of people working in computer and mathematical occupations — a decent proxy for the nation’s tech workforce — shows that the New York and Washington, D.C. regions far outpace all others. Greater New York had 321,000 such workers in 2017, while Greater Washington had 264,000. The metro area with the next largest tech workforce, Los Angeles, lagged well behind at 173,000. To be sure, the San Francisco Bay Area is a mecca for tech talent, too, split between two metro areas (San Francisco and San Jose), but even together they only slightly outpace the D.C. region at 287,000 tech workers.”

What we’re seeing is a continuation of patterns that have been developing over a long time. A number of economists have studied the concept of industry agglomeration with similar results – both corporations and people want to be with those of similar interests. Amazon’s choice of New York might have been predicted from the fact that Facebook and Google had already, with a lot less publicity, opened major centers in the city. Meanwhile, the tech workers that Amazon et al want to recruit, want to live in a region where they can network, and look for their next job.

One question raised by HQ2 is the wisdom of cities and states entering into a bidding war for corporate development, but the second question is the future of the United States, both in economics and politics. The major population centers of the coasts continue to grow, while the rural regions of the heartland wither. The Walton Family Foundation has warned that the future of the heartland depends on growth of research universities, with Minnesota the state best equipped to compete with the coasts, and Arkansas the least ready. It’s late, but there still may be time.

Sam Uretsky is a writer and pharmacist living in Louisville, Ky. Email sdu01@outlook.com.

From The Progressive Populist, December 15, 2018


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