Donald Trump’s campaign and presidency have been marked by extreme controversy, divisiveness, and partisan polarization. Many contend America hasn’t been this divided since the Civil War. Shortly after 2016’s election, comedian Cecily Strong played CNN’s chief political analyst Gloria Borger in a Saturday Night Live skit, repeatedly complaining Trump “is not normal.”
In fact, one of the rare things an overwhelming majority can agree on nowadays is Trump and his reign are outside of the presidential norm. Whether you voted for him or not, are a Republican, Democrat, or independent, love him, hate him, or are neutral, there’s general consensus that Trump and his governing style are different from anything we’ve seen before.
Assessing the unprecedented nature of Trump’s presidency and its fate requires thinking outside of politics’ conventional box. Thus it stands to reason Trump may leave the White House in an unconventional, if not a totally unique way. A Dec. 22 New York Times article (“For Trump, ‘a War Every Day,’ Waged Increasingly Alone”) quotes Steve Goldstein, who served as Undersecretary of State until his dismissal with Rex Tillerson, saying, “What I’m trying to figure out is where does it end.”
2019 combatively began with the longest government shutdown ever, generating more hardship, division and uncertainty, inexorably propelling the president on a collision course. How will Trump’s presidency end? Here are seven ways it may. Let me count the ways:
As 2019 starts, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe; investigations by New York’s new Attorney General Letitia James regarding Trump’s emoluments clause violations; secret/public testimony by close Trump associates; a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives; etc.; all hang over the 45th President’s head like swords of Damocles.
Trump lost the popular vote by more ballots than any other pretender to the throne. His approval ratings are dismal. His administration fails to fulfill many signature campaign promises, like building that “wall” on Mexico’s peso. Trump’s tariff, trade-war and stock market rollercoaster rides and overall dysfunctionality spawn turmoil. Considering all this, Trump’s reelection and serving until January 2025 seems like the least likely way he’ll leave power.
Trump could be primaried by a GOP contender, such as former Ohio Gov. John Kasich. But even if Trump wins a primary/caucus challenge or seeks reelection unopposed by a rival Republican, he’s assured of a strong challenge in 2020 from Democrats.
The chattering class has speculated Trump could, for a variety of reasons, simply resign early from office of his own volition. The physical well-being of the 72-year-old obese, exercise-adverse, Diet Coke/junk food junkie is one possibility. And while Trump calls himself a “stable genius,” there’s been more hypothesizing about his mental health than any other US president’s. Add high pressure job’s stress, compounded by Mueller’s probe, upcoming waves of Congressional investigations, plus court cases, Trump could impulsively decide to prematurely step down (or drop dead in office, like Zachary Taylor).
Even if Trump remains physically and mentally healthy, he may just chuck it all to enjoy his ill-gotten gains, to spend more time with his links, porn stars, Twitter, etc. Of course, in leaving the presidency Citizen Donald would no longer be protected by the executive privilege some presume protects him from prosecution while he’s president. Also, he’d have to pay for his own golf trips.
Section 4 of the Constitution’s 25th Amendment permits removal of a President “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” if so deemed by “the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide.”
While Vice President Mike Pence hasn’t publicly raised concerns about his boss’ ability to function, various members of Trump’s coterie have. Last September, The New York Times published a rare anonymous op-ed entitled, “I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration” by a presidential insider, claiming: “many … senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations… Given the instability many witnessed, there were early whispers within the cabinet of invoking the 25th Amendment,” wrote the self-identified “senior administration official.” Given Trump’s grandiosity, it’s possible he’d refuse to accept his inability to rule and defy efforts to constitutionally remove him via the 25th Amendment.
Another thing fractured America can agree upon is some truly despise Trump and aggrieved groups—maligned minorities, furloughed federal employees, assorted “Deep Staters”/“Enemies of the People,” you name ’em—have other legal recourse. On the day the new Democratic-controlled House was sworn in, Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., introduced another possible constitutional remedy: articles of impeachment against Trump for obstructing justice and more. Shortly after taking office. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., proclaimed “impeach the motherf***er.” Certainly, if Mueller’s report concludes Trump, his campaign, and/or regime conspired with the Kremlin and/or other foreign powers, this groundswell could spread. From collusion to corruption to obstruction, there would be more grounds for removing him from the presidency than there were for Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton.
But even if the House impeached Trump, his fate would be decided by a Senate trial, in a chamber controlled by Trump’s party, presided over by Bush appointee Chief Justice John Roberts. It appears unlikely that, as constitutionally-mandated, two thirds of the Senate would vote to throw Trump out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Denied constitutional redress of their grievances the resistance could turn to extralegal means to rid itself of this troublesome prez. Unnerved by a presi-dunce frequently braying about “executive privilege,” “unitary presidency,” declaring “national emergencies,” hobnobbing with despots, and his lack of transparency, desperate opponents anxious Trump could seize dictatorial powers might resort to extreme measures.
America was founded via revolution. The people didn’t vote King George out at a town hall meeting or impeach him — they forcibly overthrew him. Historically, the world has periodically been rocked by revolutions: Trump trauma could ignite another one.
With US inequality at historic levels and King Don personifying the 1%, the masses could stage a people’s power uprising — an “American Spring.” Revolutions have happened before and will happen again; surely, the objective conditions exist to incite insurrection and class war. For anyone doubting sparks can spread like wildfire, here’s two words: “Rodney King.” Donald, Don Jr., Eric and Jared may end up like France’s King Louis XVI and Melania and Ivanka like Marie Antoinette, their heads on chopping blocks. History is a practical joker — you never know what it will pull out of its unpredictable sleeve.
Being America’s President is extremely risky business. Since John Wilkes Booth shot Lincoln in 1865, about 19 out of our 45 presidents — more than a third — have been targets of assassination efforts and plots. About one out of every 11 Oval Office occupants has been shot to death; others were subjected to shooting incidents. Clinton and Obama just had explosive devices mailed to them, etc.
Trump has repeatedly invoked violence as a defensible response, issuing statements and tweets some say contribute to an increase in violent acts. Might this turn against him? An attempt could be made by a deranged “lone gunman” or from armed and extremely dangerous organizations he often excoriates, from MS-13 to the CIA and other factions of what Oliver Stone calls “the secret state” (which literally train assassins). Of course, as with impeachment, the chief executive has an insurance policy more ironclad than anything offered by Allstate — according to constitutional succession rules, Veep Pence would replace Trump were he whacked.
The most powerful entity Trump frequently picks fights with is the Pentagon. He often disrespects the US armed forces, campaigning by claiming he “knew more about ISIS than the generals”; missing a French centennial ceremony marking WWI’s end and no- Veterans’ Day at Arlington Cemetery last November; justifying the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; etc. Trump dispatched soldiers to the southern border on a fool’s errand as an election stunt, on the pretext GIs were protecting America from a migrant invasion by a ragtag refugee caravan including children. After almost two years in office, around Christmas the heavily guarded golfer-in-chief finally found a spare three hours to spend in a war zone, briefly visiting US troops in Iraq — of course, turning it into a photo op full of politicking.
Trump’s precipitously ending war games at Korea; announcing withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan; plus declaring ISIS defeated could also irk hawks. A dubious “national emergency” declaration to build the wall he promised Mexico would pay for—and diverting precious Pentagon funds to do so—could rile top brass, too.
It’s true Trump has lavished taxpayer dollars on the military. But over and over an effete snob, who avoided the draft due to spurious “bone spurs,” has dissed and dismissed the high command, including his former NSA retired Army Gen. H.R. McMaster and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, a former Marine Corps four-star general. After Trump fired him in late 2018, “Mad Dog” Mattis wrote a scathing departure letter, excoriating Trump for, among other things, disrespecting America’s traditional alliances and for not being “resolute and unambiguous” vis-à-vis Russian authoritarianism.
Mattis’ stinging rebuke prompted Trump to accelerate his termination date by two months. One doesn’t have to be an officer who went through the Trump wringer to disdain him: On ABC’s This Week retired four-star Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal stood by Mattis, saying Dec. 30 he wouldn’t serve under Trump, who he suggested was an immoral liar. In a typical tit-for-tat tantrum Trump tweeted McChrystal was a “dog” with a “big, dumb mouth.” In late December, retired Army General and ex-CIA Director David Petraeus also said he wouldn’t join Trump’s administration. (Trump nominated former Boeing executive Patrick Shanahan — who, like Trump, never wore his nation’s uniform — to replace Mattis at DoD.) In 2018, Trump also became embroiled in a dispute with retired Adm. William McRaven, commander of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
Retired four-star Marine Gen. John Kelly was likewise forced out of Trump’s circle and left disgruntled. According to a December Los Angeles Times interview with Kelly, “When Trump picked him to head Homeland Security, and then serve as White House chief of staff, officials from the Pentagon to Capitol Hill expressed hope that Kelly would be one of the ‘adults in the room’ to manage a mercurial president.” Now that those so-called “adults” have left the room, if frustrated in their quest for legal recourse (perhaps he’ll even pardon himself?) to get rid of Trump, what will these Pentagon top bananas do?
The armed forces may decide they have no other choice but to take up arms against an erratic renegade misbehaving as if he’s above the law. Defense Department co-conspirators may come to agree with radio host Stephanie Miller’s assertion: “Job one is getting the traitorous lunatic away from the nuclear codes, getting him out of office as soon as possible.”
Worst and most terrifying of all, military commanders could conclude their commander-in-chief’s manic behavior may not just be the product of ignorance, imbecility or insanity. Pentagon leaders might deduce Trump’s endless lying, swampy, scandal-ridden cabinet, divisiveness at home, pitting Americans against one another, disrupting our trans-Atlantic alliances, etc., are actually THE PRECISE REASON why he was installed in office by enemies foreign and domestic: To be divider-in-chief, deliberately sowing discord and chaos. The brass might diagnose all this pot stirring, such as failing to take any reasonable gun control measures to reduce mass shootings of our fellow citizens, as a plot against America requiring them to act out of patriotism and national honor.
Perhaps Pentagon putsch-ers could deploy the Emergency Alert System to do so (was January 2018’s false alert about an inbound missile attack at Hawaii a test run?). Fletcher Knebel and Charles W. Bailey II’s 1962 novel Seven Days in May envisioned a military coup, what fictional Pres. Jordan Lyman called, “A regular damn South American junta” — in the USA.
Those believing “it can’t happen here” and that a military coup d’état in America is impossible and just the stuff of fiction (like Seven Days in May) should consider this. Especially after the Bay of Pigs and Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK was at loggerheads with the CIA and Pentagon, including rightwing zealots Army General Edwin Walker (who distributed John Birch Society propaganda to servicemen) and Air Force Gen. Curtis E. LeMay (racist George Wallace’s running mate during 1968’s presidential election). In Seven Days in May, the raison d’être for the Pentagon plot against Pres. Lyman is a disarmament treaty with the Soviets that was similar in tone to the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty ratified in October 1963 by Washington and Moscow.
According to historian Arthur Schlesinger Pres. Kennedy was such a fan of Seven Days in May he urged John Frankenheimer (who’d made 1962’s conspiracy theory thriller The Manchurian Candidate) adapt the novel for the screen. The movie was made — but JFK never saw Frankenheimer’s 1964 film version, as he was liquidated the month after he signed the Test Ban Treaty in what many suspect was a kind of coup. Abroad, US intelligence agencies and the military have repeatedly overthrown and imposed regime change — is it outside the realm of possibility that they might bring the war home?
Psychologist Richard Levak, who consulted for The Apprentice, the reality TV show that propelled Trump to fame, told The New Yorker in 2019: “That somebody can become that successful while also being that emotionally undisciplined—it’s so macabre that you have to watch it… And you keep waiting for the comeuppance.”
It seems inevitable that the man who gained fame snarkily squealing “You’re fired!” will eventually get fired himself — one way or another, perhaps even by a firing squad. Above are the most likely scenarios for Trump’s constitutional or extralegal departure from office, the seven ways it may happen.
Trump’s presidency is clearly business as unusual — we must expect the unexpected when considering how it may end. Will the man-who-would-be-king survive or finally get his long-awaited-for comeuppance? All hell could break loose in 2019, when the unthinkable is thought, the unspeakable spoken and the unimaginable happens.
Ed Rampell is a film historian and critic based in Los Angeles. Rampell is the author of Progressive Hollywood, A People’s Film History of the United States and he co-authored The Hawaii Movie and Television Book, now in its third edition. This originally appeared at FreePress.org.
From The Progressive Populist, February 15, 2019
Blog | Current Issue | Back Issues | Essays | Links
About the Progressive Populist | How to Subscribe | How to Contact Us
PO Box 819, Manchaca TX 78652