Wayne O'Leary

Why Trump May Win

Heigh-ho, heigh-ho, it’s down the rabbit hole we go! The crazier Donald Trump acts, the crazier Democrats act in response. I wouldn’t have said this a year ago or even six months ago, but it’s beginning to look as though the GOP’s evil genius may very well claw his way back into the White House in 2020.

The Democrats, who can’t stand prosperity, are cooperating with the Donald in every way imaginable, mostly by responding emotionally and thoughtlessly to his every provocation. It’s obvious Trump, the least intelligent, least analytical, least reflective president we’ve ever had, nevertheless has a shrewd, finely honed instinct for the jugular; he knows just what buttons to push to make Democrats climb the walls and which issues will set them off time and again.

If it weren’t for the fact that the Current Occupant is a total ignoramus and a moral leper besides, he would be the favorite for reelection. It’s mostly his extraordinarily flawed persona, his symbolic middle finger to the world, that makes the upcoming contest close. As it is, the poster boy for bad behavior by a public servant recently achieved a 47% approval rating in at least one poll. How is this possible?

First, he’s an incumbent, and Americans usually vote for incumbents, other factors considered equal. Since the year 1900, incumbent presidents have won reelection 12 times and lost only five times; the losers include such inept campaigners as Hoover, Ford, Carter, and Bush 41. (Jimmy Carter is the greatest ex-president ever, but that’s another story.)

Second, Trump benefits by running in a time of low public and private morality, much of it of his own making. American standards of deportment have lowered precipitantly in recent years. So long as the economy appears reasonably sound, our fellow citizens don’t much care how the president behaves or what kind of language he uses. Within bounds, graft, corruption, and sexual impropriety are acceptable, even among the chief executive’s “Christian” supporters (provided political priorities are met).

A third factor favoring Trump is the economy. Let’s be clear: On balance, the economy is not good, but Americans have been relentlessly propagandized to believe it’s good, and the wish is father to the thought. Especially if you don’t look closely, there’s just enough evidence of positive economic movement, notwithstanding business uncertainty, to lend credence to Trump’s absurd claim to be presiding over “the greatest economy ever.” For example, the stock market continues its nearly unbroken upward trajectory, with the Dow (27,000) and the S&P 500 (3,000) setting records in July, and the market overall rising 17% so far this year.

Great news, right? It is if you ignore the fact that a rising stock market benefits, at most, 10% of the population. Trump can point to other economic markers, of course: falling fixed-rate home mortgages (if you discount simultaneously rising house prices); increased consumer spending (the pent-up demand of a decade’s worth of austerity, all charged on plastic); a growing gross domestic product (up 25% since 2009, but that’s a lower percentage gain than for any recovery since the 1960s, says a New York Times study). And wages remain dead in the water despite low unemployment. Still, for a beaten-down generation starved for any good economic news, these mixed returns may be sufficient, failing a downturn next year, to push Trump over the top.

And, then, there are the Democrats. They’ve helped the president immensely by harping without end on impeachment. Objectively, Trump certainly deserves to be impeached, but a majority of the public doesn’t give a damn one way or another; it’s just “politics” to most people. Democrats err in thinking everyone feels as strongly about Trump’s offensive behavior as they do, but most don’t. Perhaps there are too many lawyers with blinders on in the Democratic Party. Whatever the reason, Democrats bet the farm on legalism and the sainted Robert Mueller, and Mueller turned out to have feet of clay.

The epic squandering of the Democrats’ 2018 congressional victory carries over into the issue of the hour: immigration. The southern border crisis will be Trump’s issue of choice in 2020; he’ll try to use migration as a cudgel against Democrats the way Germany’s far right used it against Angela Merkel. And Democrats, reacting emotionally to the president’s policy of deliberate cruelty toward the undocumented, will play into his hands by calling essentially for “open borders” — the logical conclusion of the Castro-Warren plans advocating decriminalization of illegal border crossings, greatly expanded legal immigration, and virtually uncapped acceptance and resettlement of refugees seeking asylum in the US.

This unthinking, knee-jerk response to Trump’s nativist border policy should come as no surprise; Democrats are now a party totally committed to group identity politics. A “come one, come all” immigration stance is not only fervently held dogma in party-activist circles, but the presumed key to long-term Democratic political success in a future majority-minority country; it’s the reactive counterpoint to Trump’s immigration-restriction strategy.

Central to Democratic identity politics in the coming campaign will be a renewed focus on gender and race — racial reparations are already back on the agenda — and a marginalization of economic populism, delighting corporate Democrats. Part of this “woke” approach, increasingly expressed openly, consists of offering the door to the party’s formerly integral white, male working-class constituents, who will be gently nudged once more in the direction of Trump — an incredibly shortsighted policy.

Here, a contrary lesson from the original Populists should apply. In 1892, Populist Party presidential candidate Tom Watson urged Black and White Southerners to set aside race in favor of common economic interests, in order to resist the “financial despotism” that enslaved both.

Unfortunately, the identity-politics crowd currently ascendant has a narrower vision. The desired future of their Democratic Party revolves exclusively around women and “people of color.” Black women, in particular, are held out as the party’s all-important key constituency, even though their power in the front-loaded presidential-nominating process resides largely in Southern states Republicans will easily win in the general election. Feminist-driven Democrats, furthermore, are supposedly “demanding” a woman candidate, ideally an all-female ticket, in 2020.

What Donald Trump will do with all this is anyone’s guess, but you can be sure it will be grist for his mill — perhaps his chance for political redemption. I hope I’m wrong.

Wayne O’Leary is a writer in Orono, Maine, specializing in political economy. He holds a doctorate in American history and is the author of two prizewinning books.

From The Progressive Populist, September 1, 2019

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