Dispatches

LOCKDOWN PROTESTS MAY HAVE SPREAD VIRUS WIDELY, CELLPHONE DATA SUGGESTS.

Rallies protesting lockdown orders may have helped spread the coronavirus, as demonstrators often are traveling hundreds of miles to events, wher they commingle for several hours before returning to all points of their states, and even crossing state lines, The Guardian reported (5/18).

Cellphone location data, provided to The Guardian by the progressive campaign group the Committee to Protect Medicare, raises the prospect that the protests will play a role in spreading the coronavirus epidemic to areas which had, so far, experienced relatively few infections.

The anonymized location data was captured from opt-in cellphone apps, and data scientists at the firm VoteMap used it to determine the movements of devices present at protests in late April and early May in five states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Colorado and Florida.

In one case, after an April 30 protest in Lansing, Mich., in which armed protesters stormed the capitol building and state police were forced to physically block access to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), devices which had been present at the protest site can be seen returning to all parts of the state, from Detroit to remote towns in the state’s north. Others reached, and some crossed, the Indiana border.

In 48 hours after an April 19 “Operation Gridlock” protest in Denver, devices reached the borders of neighboring states, including Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Utah.

In Florida on April 18, devices returned to all parts of the peninsula and up to the Georgia border. In Wisconsin on April 24, devices returned to smaller towns like Green Bay and Wausau, and the borders of Minnesota and Illinois.

In North Carolina in late April, one of the leaders of the state’s anti-lockdown protests tested positive for COVID-19 but said she would attend future rallies.

BIDEN WIDENS LEAD AGAINST TRUMP. A new national Fox News poll (5/21) finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead over President Donald Trump and the average of all polls taken the week before May 24 have Biden up by a 48% to 41% margin, Harry Enten noted at CNN (5/24).

“Almost any time I explain that Biden’s leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up ‘but what about 2016.’ That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign,” Enten noted. “It’s one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.”

Among the data points from the Fox News poll noted by Kerry Eleveld at DaillyKos.com (5/22):

• Just 20% say the economy is excellent/good while 49% say it’s poor;

• As Trump tries to tear down Barack Obama, voters in battleground states have a favorable view of Obama by nearly a two-to-one margin: 64% favorable versus 35% unfavorable (Trump’s at 42% favorable/55% unfavorable in battlegrounds);

• Trump is absolutely sucking wind with the suburban women who helped deliver the House to Democrats in 2018 at 33% favorable/66% unfavorable; Biden is widely popular among the demographic, with 57% favorable/39% unfavorable.

In recent polls of battleground states followed by Real Clear Politics, Biden led in Arizona by 7 points (5/1), Florida by 6 points (5/15), Michigan by 6 points (4/22), Minnesota by 5 points (5/24), New Hampshire by 8 points (4/30), Pennsylvania by 6 points (5/1), Virginia by 12 points (5/19), Wisconsin by 3 points (5/12); Biden was 3 points behind in North Carolina (5/15) and Ohio (5/12); he was 2 points behind in Iowa (5/4); and he was tied in Texas (5/2). Other polls show Trump leading by only single digits in Texas. Nevada, which Biden led by 8 points in a January poll, is thought to lean Democratic, and his team also hopes to put Georgia in play. A Civiqs poll conducted May 16-18 found Biden leading Trump by 1 point in Georgia and both Republican senators who are up for election, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, are in trouble.

TRUMP GETS ‘CREDIT’ FOR STATE OF ECONOMY. Voters increasingly view Trump instead of former President Barack Obama as responsible for the state of the economy, Morning Consult found (5/20). Overall, 63% of respondents said Trump was responsible for current economic conditions, while 16% said Obama was responsible. This amounts to a small but notable change from August 2019, when 55% said Trump and 27% said Obama. Democrats appear to be driving this shift, too. In 2019, just 49% of Democrats said Trump was responsible for the then-strong economy, but in the latest survey, 70% said Trump was responsible.

SWING STATES HAMMERED BY ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. In terms of unemployment claims, the battleground states are getting absolutely hammered, as around 38 million jobless claims were filed due to the economic catastrophe unleashed by the novel coronavirus. Some analysts predict the unemployment rate could top 30%, which is higher than during the Great Depression, Greg Sargent noted at the Washington Post (5/22).

That has set off debate over whether to extend the additional $600 weekly in unemployment assistance that Congress passed in March (that’s on top of conventional benefits), which extends through July.

Trump and Republicans are opposing an extension, arguing too much help will discourage the jobless from returning to work — never mind that the economy is largely in deliberate deep freeze, to limit the coronavirus’s spread. Democrats, by contrast, argue that an extension is urgent for precisely that reason, and because this rolling calamity will only get far worse.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida all lost over 1 million jobs each, and Ohio came very close to that. Michigan lost over one-fifth of its jobs — a massive blow, and Pennsylvania almost did, too.

North Carolina lost over half a million jobs; Georgia lost almost that many; and Wisconsin isn’t far behind. Biden is targeting Georgia, but that state also has a competitive Senate race, as does North Carolina.

Some Republican senators are privately conceding that they will have to extend aid in some way, but Trump has dug in. He and his advisers insist that the economy and jobs will roar back quickly. “The states are opening up,” Trump says. “It’s a transition to greatness.”

WOMEN DRIVE BIDEN’S LEAD AMONG SENIORS. Donald Trump’s declining support among older voters since the coronavirus took hold is well documented, but new data offers a clearer understanding, Alexi McCammond and Margaret Talev noted at Axios.com (5/23).

Among the 65+ crowd, it’s women driving the exodus. Joe Biden’s appeal with senior men climbed during his surprise comeback to be the presumed Democratic nominee, but not necessarily at Trump’s expense — and new polling suggests it may be ebbing in any case.

• The coronavirus matters, but so does health care policy overall.

By the numbers: A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Biden leading Trump by 22 points among female voters 65+, while Trump leads Biden by 11 points among older men. That’s what gets Biden to a 10-point overall lead over the president among seniors.

• “There is a big gender gap among seniors in the matchup, just as there is among all registered voters,” says poll director Doug Schwartz. “Older women really like Joe Biden, and they really don’t like Donald Trump.” 

• Since February, Quinnipiac data also shows Biden has increased his lead over Trump with independent 65+ voters, from seven to 20 points.

AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT VOTING BY MAIL AMID PANDEMIC. Americans are extremely concerned that the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt voting in November’s presidential election, according to a poll from Pew Research Center (4/28).

They also overwhelmingly support allowing everyone to vote by mail, even as partisan divides over mail voting expansions have taken hold at the national level over the past few months.

Almost three out of four Americans favor universal access to mail voting, according to the poll. While Democrats overwhelmingly back greater absentee balloting, about half of Republicans also do — in contrast to many of the party’s national leaders, Miles Parks noted for National Public Radio.

President Trump’s recently claimed that expanding mail voting could mean electoral defeat for Republicans and increase the incidence of fraud.

Academic studies have debunked both accusations: Mail voting introduces the possibility for slightly more fraud, but it is still a minuscule amount according to voting experts, especially when appropriate modern safeguards are put into place.

And a new study from Stanford University found no statistically significant partisan effect of increasing access to mail balloting. In fact, some experts, like Stanford’s Nate Persily, have noted that in a pandemic situation like the current coronavirus, Republicans could end up being the beneficiaries of expanded mail voting.

“If you think that the most vulnerable populations to the coronavirus are older people — they tend to vote Republican disproportionately. And they might be the ones who might be most likely to vote by mail,” Persily told NPR last month. “So it’s not clear who wins as a result of moving to these types of measures.”

Overall, there is bipartisan concern about the impact the pandemic could have in November. Two-thirds of Americans say it is at least somewhat likely that voting will be “significantly disrupted” by the outbreak.

Another potential casualty of the virus could be some voters’ confidence in the legitimacy of the election.

Earlier this month during Wisconsin’s primary, the state’s Democratic governor sought to delay the election or shift it to all absentee ballots but was blocked the state’s Republican legislature and conservative state Supreme Court.

The poll’s results were collected in the week after that controversy, and the results find less than 40% of liberal Democrats believe this year’s election will be fairly conducted.

REV. DONNELL KIRCHNER, R.I.P. Rev. Donnell Kirncher, C.Ss.R. an occasional contributor to The Progressive Populist, died suddenly at the Holy Ghost Redemptorist rectory in Houston (5/13), an apparent victim of COVID-19. Fr. Donnell, 79, served the poor and abandoned for 54 years — 40 of them as a missionary in Brazil’s Amazon region. Five members of the Redemptorists’ community tested positive for COVID infection after Fr. Donnell’s death from pneumonia; the fellow priests were asymptomatic and placed in quarantine to avoid infecating others, according to Holy Ghost Church, which shut down Masses that had resumed (5/2) under limits that restricted attendance to 20% of capacity and practiced social distancing.

US TO WITHDRAW FROM ARMS CONTROL DEAL. The US has announced it will withdraw from a major accord that permits unarmed aerial surveillance flights over dozens of participating countries.

The Open Skies Treaty came into force in 2002 and is designed to boost confidence and assure against attacks. But senior US officials said the country was withdrawing due to repeated Russian violations of its terms, the BBC reported.

The US informed Russia of its decision on May 22 and will formally withdraw in six months, officials said.

“During the course of this review it has become abundantly clear that it is no longer in America’s interests to remain a party to the Open Skies Treaty,” one official told Reuters.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said a US withdrawal would be “very regrettable,” adding that the Trump administration was working to “derail all agreements on arms control”.

Some 35 nations are party to the treaty, including Russia, Canada and the UK.

The US can use satellites to gather intelligence on Russia, but Trump’s decision will cause tensions with European allies who do not have access to such technology. And it may be in Russia’s interest to remain in the treaty, exacerbating the unease of Washington’s partners, while it continues its flights over their territory.

Earlier this year, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper accused Russia of violating the treaty by banning flights over the city of Kaliningrad and other areas near Georgia.

It marks the latest effort by Trump’s administration to withdraw the US from a major global treaty. Last year, Trump pulled the US out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) with Russia.

The INF was signed by the US and the USSR in 1987, and banned the vast majority of nuclear and non-nuclear missiles with short and medium ranges.

Charles Pierce noted at Esquire.com (5/21), “There is absolutely no other way to look at this story … without seeing it as a boon to Vladimir Putin and Russia. It fulfills all the obvious prerequisites of the president*’s foreign-policy thinking: it does Russia a favor, alienates this country’s traditional allies, reverses a half-century of accepted strategic doctrine and replaces it with nothing at all, gives the president* a phony reason to look phony tough, and it doesn’t make a lick of damn sense. The last one is the most important. And, apparently, there’s more to follow.

The New York Times reported, “Mr. Trump’s decision may be viewed as more evidence that he is preparing to exit the one major arms treaty remaining with Russia: New START, which limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear missiles each. It expires in February, weeks after the next presidential inauguration, and Mr. Trump has insisted that China must join what is now a U.S.-Russia limit on nuclear arsenals.”

Pierce added, “Such is his mistrust toward, and disrespect for, “deals” he did not negotiate that I swear we’re all going to wake up some morning to find he’s given Louisiana back to France.”

FEDERAL JUDGE EVISCERATES FLA. LAW BARRING FELONS FROM VOTING. A federal judge struck down in large part the Florida state law passed by Republicans that denied felons the restoration of their voting rights if they had not paid all fines, fees and other costs associated with their court appearances. The requirement constituted a poll tax, US District Judge Robert Hinkle ruled, and therefore violated the 24th Amendment prohibitions on such.

The details of the order (issued 5/24) amount to a substantive, but not total, victory for opponents of the Florida law, “Hunter” noted at DailyKos (5/24).

Hinkle based much of the ruling on the “staggering inability” of the Florida government to administer their own requirements.

The order requires Florida to specify the exact amount of fines and restitution a past felon is alleged to owe. If the individual is unable to pay, however, the state is not allowed to bar them from the rolls. In practical effect, Hunter noted, the order will restore the right to vote—again—to most ex-felons in the state.

DEEPENING CONCENTRATION IN FACTORY FARM INDUSTRY PUTS MEAT PRODUCTION AT RISK. As the the COVID-19 pandemic puts workers at risk in meat and poultry industries and threatens the meat supply, research from Food & Water Watch exposes the corporate consolidation of America’s meat, poultry, dairy and egg industries.

As plants become pandemic hotspots, farmers are euthanizing cattle and dumping product, while store shelves across the country sit bare.

The new report, “Factory Farm Nation: 2020,” reveals the stark impacts of recent consolidation in the food industry, including:

• A 14% increase – representing more than 190 million animals – in US factory farm stock from 2012 to 2017.

• An 82 billion-pound increase in annual factory farm manure waste – three times the weight in human sewage produced by New York City each year – from 2012 to 2017.

• The loss of nearly 10,000 family-run dairies (those with fewer than 500 head) from 2012 to 2017.

• A 70% increase in the real consumer cost of ground beef over 20 years, while farmer income continues to decline.

“Due to reckless corporate consolidation and dominance in the meat and dairy industries over recent years, our country’s food production and supply chains have been put in peril by a small handful of giant companies that prioritize profit over food safety, worker safety, sustainability and consumer choice,” said Wenonah Hauter, executive director of Food & Water Watch. “Without bold action by Congress to address the glaring faults in our corporate agriculture system, the current supply disruptions, worker illnesses, family farm crises and rampant pollution of our rural communities will only be the tip of the iceberg.”

Legislation introduced by Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) is intended to correct many of the existing problems in the agriculture system and put the country on a path to more safe and sustainable food production in- the future. Among other things, the Farm System Reform Act would:

• Place a moratorium on construction of new large factory farms and the expansion of existing ones.

• Hold corporations liable for environmental harm caused by the factory farms that raise their animals.

• Provide a $100 billion voluntary buyout program for contract farmers to transition away from factory farming.

• Strengthen the Packers & Stockyards Act to protect family farmers and ranchers from abusive practices by integrating corporations.

See the report at FWWatch.org.

OREGON REPUBS BACK QANON CONSPIRACY PROMOTER FOR SENATE. Republicans in Oregon have selected a Senate candidate who promotes the QAnon conspiracy theory, the latest sign that conservatives are increasingly willing to embrace a movement built on a baseless series of plotlines about President Trump battling a shadowy globalist cabal.

Jo Rae Perkins won with 49% of the vote in Oregon’s primary (5/19), vanquishing three other Republican candidates to become the party’s nominee for the seat currently held by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D). While the incumbent is considered a strong favorite, she has the backing of party leaders for a seat Republicans held as recently as 2009, the New York Times reported (5/20).

The conspiracy theory began in 2017 when someone claiming to have top-secret information began posting under a pseudonym to the online message board 4chan. Those continuing posts from the person identified as “Q” have woven a fantastical plot about the planet’s elites: a global cabal of politicians and celebrities controlling governments, media, banks and a child sex-trafficking ring, with Trump as a heroic mastermind working with patriotic members of government to dismantle the cabal and “deep state” actors, which they expect will lead to mass arrests of the likes of former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and others.

From The Progressive Populist, June 15, 2020

Populist.com