John Buell

Nukes, Trump and Cybersecurity

Should American citizens feel relieved that Donald J. Trump no longer has his hands on the nuclear trigger? Speaker Pelosi was so concerned about his nuclear stewardship that she met with Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to discuss the nuclear command structure?

I am not. From the start of the nuclear age we have been asked to believe that as long as these weapons of mass destruction were under the supervision of the adults in the room, we need not be overly alarmed. Even much of the focus of presidential campaigns has been on the qualifications and maturity of the man or woman who would hold the nuclear trigger.

Constructive as Pelosi’s conversation may have been, reports on it beg one important question. Under our Constitution, any president remains commander in chief, with presumably full control of that lethal trigger. And since the system is predicated on the need for rapid response, it seems unlikely that there could be too many barriers to impetuous actions by the president. And if any Congress sought to impose such barriers, would these not amount to an unconstitutional attack on the powers of the presidency, a counter coup? MIT professor and expert on nuclear proliferation issues Vipin Narang discussed this issue in a recent Washington Post interview: “Is there anything Milley can do to prevent the president from “accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike”?

“The answer is emphatically no. The president, and the president alone, possesses the sole authority to order a nuclear launch, and no one can legally stop him or her. Despite reports that Pelosi received assurances that there are safeguards in place in the event the president of the United States (POTUS) wants to launch a nuclear weapon, any such meaningful or effective safeguards would be illegal.”

Important as is this legal drama it should not distract us from the growing dangers posed by the evolution of these technologies. Modernization of nuclear weapons means their further digitalization. The Biden Harris administration is likely to follow the Obama-Biden request for a $300 billion commitment to nuclear modernization. I find it curious that, in a month when the US has been victim of a major cyberattack of yet unknown dimensions and duration, political leaders and pundits would worry almost exclusively about the nuclear damage Trump might do. To the damage that would result from prosaic events as mishandling the hardware we now must add such possibilities as these, cited by Nuclear Threat Institute (NTI) scholars:

• An attack on early warning systems that provide false indications of a nuclear attack during a crisis

• Disruption of communications between officials, operators, and nuclear systems and/or international counterparts in a potential crisis

• Introduction of a flaw or malevolent code into nuclear weapons through the supply chain or otherwise in a way that could compromise the effectiveness of those weapons

• Achieving unauthorized control of a nuclear weapon through cyber-assisted theft and/or defeating of security devices.

NTI adds: “Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated and levels of digitization are growing (for example, as will undoubtedly occur during the upcoming modernization of the US nuclear arsenal). Taken together, this is a dangerous mix and governments and industry must act to address the threat.”

Cyber protocols and procedures might be negotiated to limit such risks, but the hackers and other malevolent interests always seem to be a step ahead. When it comes to nuclear weaponry cybersecurity may be an illusion. Unlike many of life’s responsibilities, being successful most of the time is not good enough.

Taking nuclear weaponry off high alert status may improve our odds in the short run. Nonetheless, curbing our growing dependence on digital technologies and complete nuclear disarmament, however seemingly unrealistic, are better bets for our long run survival.

John Buell lives in Southwest Harbor, Maine and writes on labor and environmental issues. His books include “Politics, Religion, and Culture in an Anxious Age” (Palgrave MacMillan, 2011). Email Jbuell@acadia.net.

From The Progressive Populist, March 1, 2021

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