Kevin McCarthy is drooling over the prospect of becoming the next Speaker of the House. He believes history is on his side with the President’s party traditionally losing representation in Congress. But McCarthy is wrong. Usually, the President will bring in many members of Congress on his coattails. But Joe Biden did not have any coattails: he barely kept the House intact, nearly losing the Democratic majority.
However, the winds are now blowing the Democrats way because of money, abortion restrictions, gun control, quality of the candidates, gubernatorial races and inflation.
Money is the lifeblood of politics. According to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal, Republican fundraising online fell by more than 12% across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter,
Democratic contributions surged at the same time. Total federal donations on ActBlue, the Democratic counterpart to WinRed, jumped by more than 21 percent. Money not only makes the world go round, it makes a big difference in close campaigns.
Turnout is the name of the game in the midterm elections. The results in Ruby Red Kansas where abortion was on the ballot in August, demonstrates the turnout potential for the abortion issue. Sixty percent of the voters in Kansas want to have the right to have an abortion. Voter turnout was enormous with 909,000 Kansans voting. This swamped the 2020 primary turnout of 636,000 voters by a whopping 43%. And in Democratic or purple states, the turnout of women and moderate Republicans should be even stronger.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade is a wake-up call to Democrats, Independents and moderate Republicans. In November, they will turn out in droves and increase Democratic margins in the House and Senate.
The Supreme Court handed another issue to the Democrats when they overturned a New York law that prevented citizens from carrying weapons wherever they wanted. More than 80% of voters in American want gun restrictions. Even NRA members want more gun control. This issue will encourage more voter turnout for the Democrats.
Twenty Republican seats and only 14 Democratic seats are up in the Senate during the 2022 election. This math alone helps the Democrats in keeping and perhaps expanding the Senate majority. Republicans gave up Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina due to retirements. These seats are likely to flip to the Democrats.
The quality of candidates tilts also heavily in favor of the Democrats. For example, in Georgia, Herschel Walker has proved himself thoroughly unqualified for the office. Walker is a former football star with no political experience. Walker never graduated from college. He was a Texas resident until last year. In debates he faltered and demonstrated a lack of command of the issues. In Florida, US Rep. Val Demings is light years sharper than Sen. Marco Rubio. In Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz is an outsider, a longtime New Jersey resident transplanted to Pennsylvania, with no political experience and is trailing John Fetterman by more than 10% in the polls.
Republicans have put up some extremely questionable candidates for governor. In Pennsylvania, a battleground state, Doug Mastriano is the Republican candidate for governor. Mastriano participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington, D.C., and is a strict antiabortionist. Polls show him behind Democrat Josh Shapiro by 8%. This campaign will help Democratic Senate and House candidates win in Pennsylvania.
In Arizona, Republicans have nominated Kari Lake to be their candidate for governor. Ms. Lake has not been elected to any office, and is a former anchor for a Fox TV station in Phoenix. She denies that President Biden won the 2020 election. Her opponent, Katie Hobbs, is the Arizona Secretary of State. Hobbs is a former Democratic member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 24 from 2013 to 2019. She served as state Senate minority leader from 2015 to 2019 and previously represented District 15 in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013.
Inflation, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is steadily coming down. In July, prices did not increase at all. Gasoline prices have come down every day for the past two months. Republicans have blamed (wrongly) the Democrats for inflation. This issue will no longer be a strong talking point for Republican candidates.
Joel Joseph is an attorney and chairman of the Made in the USA Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting American-made products. Email joeldjoseph@gmail.com. Phone 310 MADE-USA
From The Progressive Populist, September 15, 2022
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