Christianity is nothing if not durable. Here in the rural heartland alone the faith has survived church-on-church theological name calling, family dinners spent arguing over the scriptural basis for speaking in tongues, and the occasional church league fisticuffs the Baptists always seem to win.
This is not the Christianity of higher biblical criticism. Nobody here seems interested in papal succession protocol. And while Republican candidates for office work God into their stump speeches at every opportunity, none of those visits have (to date) turned into prayer meetings or exorcisms.
Indeed for all the many downsides of what some of these folk believe, they and their communities would be the lesser if they disappeared tomorrow. But while these believers do pretty well at walking their talk, their greater faith tradition is undergoing massive changes, most of which signal a very different landscape for 21st century American Christianity.
According to a recent report published by the Pew Research Center, megatrends suggest fewer that half of the country will identify as Christians by 2070 — and possibly one-third by the end of the century. The study indicated multiple factors and trends when making the forecast, including the increase in un-affiliation (nones) and disaffiliation (those who have left some form of Christian tradition): Nones are on track to make up 52% of the population by 2070; and 31% of Christians currently disaffiliate before age 30, but that percentage is still rising.
Clearly the term megatrend is deserved when sorting through the study. The good news for the progressive cause is an increasing number of nones and disaffiliated Christians align themselves with liberal candidates and issues. (Nones voted 2-1 (65% to 31%) for 2022 Democratic candidates seeking House seats.) The bad news for the standing Democratic Party apparatus is these voters expect to see people who look like them in places of power. And soon.
Included, but not directly teased out in the Pew Center study, are progressive Christians still active in Catholic and mainline Protestant congregations. We know from other sources their engagement with political, social and economic realties remains high, still their average and mean ages continue to rise. Sadly, these are rich traditions struggling to remain relevant in a most uncertain milieu, and progressivism would sorely miss their voices and resources.
These findings cover a great deal of ground, and thus don’t apply evenly across the broad spectrum of Christianity. There are and will continue to be communities within the greater tradition that remain vital, immune by chance or choice to every existential threat that comes their way. And on the other end of the vitality spectrum, those forced to test the very durability of their faith.
Don Rollins is a Unitarian Universalist minister in Jackson, Ohio. Email donaldl rollins@gmail.com.
From The Progressive Populist, January 1-15, 2023
Blog | Current Issue | Back Issues | Essays | Links
About the Progressive Populist | How to Subscribe | How to Contact Us