Scorched Earth, Wildfires, and Raging Floods … Is Geoengineering Our Climate the Answer?

By LEW KINGSBURY

Globally, June, July, and August of 2023 will always be remembered as the hottest in recorded history. This finding, obvious to most, is supported by computer analysis of billions of data points collected from around the world.

Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, said recently in advance of the November UN Cop28 Climate Summit,”Our planet has just endured a season of simmering, the hottest summer on record. Climate breakdown has begun”.

“Scientists have long warned what our fossil fuel addiction will unleash. Our climate is imploding faster than we can cope with, with extreme weather events hitting every corner of the planet.”

The data shows that global warming reached an estimated 1.23 degree celsius increase over pre-industrial world temperatures in August 2023. Accordingly, the planet will reach the Paris agreements target of 1.5 degree celsius increase by December 2034.

Progress to end the burning of fossil fuel remains slow, with previous tentative agreements being opposed by fossil fuel producing states, led by Saudi Arabia. US Republican congressional members have espoused rollbacks of President Joe Biden’s climate change policies when they regain control of the White House.

This leaves scientists no alternative but to look for other methods to slow the inevitable warming of the planet in hopes that technological advances in transportation and energy generation will eventually lead the marketplace to a cleaner future.

In June 2023, the Biden administration released the “Congressionally Mandated Research Plan and an Initial Research Governance Framework Related to Solar Radiation Modification”(The Plan).

The document focuses on atmospheric based approaches to solar radiation modification (SRM), specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB).

The idea of solar radiation modification geoengineering to lower the Earth’s temperature was first proposed by Russian physicist Mikhail Budyko in 1974. Noting that a recent massive volcanic eruption had caused the Earth to cool significantly, he proposed dispersing millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to replicate the volcano’s effect.

Here the sulfur dioxide would mix with dust, water, oxygen and other particulate to form sulfuric acid droplets. These droplets amass to form milky white clouds, reflecting sunlight and cooling the earth with an enormous sun shade.

Noting that the volcano’s effect started degrading in one year, he foresaw sulfur dioxide geoengineering as a temporary measure requiring constant maintenance.

The Plan states:

“A program of research into the scientific and societal implications of SRM would enable better informed decisions about the potential risks and benefits of SRM as a component of climate change policy, alongside the foundational elements of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and adaptation.”

“Such a research program would also help to prepare the United States for possible deployment of SRM by other public or private actors. A research program characterized by transparency and international cooperation would contribute to a broader basis of trust around this issue.”

“The potential risks and benefits to human health and well-being associated with scenarios involving the use of SRM need to be considered relative to the risks and benefits associated with plausible trajectories of ongoing climate change not involving SRM.”

“Outdoor experiments would be valuable in combination with model and laboratory studies for understanding the processes involved with potential SRM deployment.”

NOAA and NASA are cooperating on sampling the lower stratospheric aerosol layer using the NASA WB-57 high-altitude research aircraft. The plane has a ceiling of 60,000 feet, remains aloft for 7 hours, carries a payload of 8800 pounds, has a range of 2500 miles and a crew of two.

Modeling studies to date have used a target of 100,000 feet as the sulfur dioxide dispersal altitude necessary to achieve a solar shade effect that remains airborne for a nominal period of time.

It is expected that unmanned aerial drones with an optimum payload and range capability will need to be developed to support SAI testing and potential future implementation.

In the early 2010s, geoengineering using SAI approaches was being studied at the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institute at Stanford. Much of the funding was being provided by the Petroleum Institute and their members.

In 2011 researchers at Stanford published a scientific paper titled “Can We Test Geoengineering” in Energy and Environmental Science magazine. The paper proposed a decade long test to determine the benefits and detriments of geoengineering the stratosphere.

The researchers expected that impacts to precipitation would be unpredictable. For arid areas, less sunlight means less evaporation resulting in less rainfall. Areas without the sunshield would become hotter. The ability of certain regions of the world to feed themselves would be diminished.

They foresaw a high likelihood that polar stratospheric ozone depletion would occur. However the use of SAI was stated as being by far the cheapest solar engineering alternative being explored.

The Plan is an important first step in initiating global discussions and controlling testing of a potentially detrimental approach to cooling the earth. It should be an important discussion point in the upcoming UN COP28 Climate Summit to be held in Dubai in late November.

Lew Kingsbury retired from a career working in the Defense Sector as a shipbuilder liaison with NAVSEA. For seven years he was a reporter for the Cryer newspaper in midcoast Maine. He is the author of “COVER-UP: How the FBI Hid the True Origins of the 9/11 Terrorist Attack”. His book can be found of Amazon Kindle.

From The Progressive Populist, October 15, 2023

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