Defuse Tensions With China

By JASON SIBERT

The arms control treaties that protected the world from an uncontrollable arms race have gone by the wayside, a casualty of the current Cold War.

The Cold War between the United States and the Russia/China orbit could erupt into a hot war, maybe over Taiwan. Of course, the China/Russia orbit is doing everything it can to undermine the world order established after World War II, and it supports authoritarian and totalitarian governments, a danger to the concept of international law, diplomacy, and peace.

Is there a way to temper this Cold War and move forward? Can we take tiny steps in the right direction? Writer Michael D. Swaine gives us some direction in his story at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, “Stabilizing the Growing Taiwan Crisis: New Messaging and Understandings are Urgently Needed.”

The US-China relationship appears to have stabilized since the November 2023 meeting between US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping in San Francisco, said Swaine. The reality, however, is that the features and trends pushing both countries toward a confrontation over Taiwan persist, fueling a dangerous, interactive dynamic that could quickly overcome any diplomatic thaw between the world’s biggest powers. These underlying forces — increased levels of domestic threat inflation in both the US and China, the worst–casing of the other side’s motives and intentions, and the resulting erosion in the confidence of the original understanding over Taiwan reached in the 1970s threaten to push Beijing and Washington into a crisis.

To defuse the tensions, the US and China must reaffirm their long-standing policy on Taiwan while also undertaking specific actions to stabilize their relationship. Swaine gives us a series of steps for stabilization. First, the Joe Biden Administration should explicitly reject extreme rhetoric towards China and the contention that an independent Taiwan is strategically crucial to overall Asian security. Second, the administration can further promote stability in US-China interactions with Taiwan by affirming and clarifying the One-China policy through a series of statements. Third, the US opposes any Chinese effort to coerce Taiwan or do unification through force. It would accept any resolution of the cross-strait issue reached without coercion and endorsed by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Fourth, the US does not intend to infringe on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, interfere in China’s internal affairs, or pursue a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.

Swaine looks to solve a problem through dialog or diplomacy. Of course, it’s a cheaper and less lethal option than war. However, Swaine also admits that a perfect storm is upon us. The highly nationalist stakes involved in the Taiwan situation ensure a strong level of domestic elite and public pressure on the PRC government to look tough on this issue.

Swaine makes other suggestions in his story, recommending a strategy of deterrence and reassurance. For this story, we’ll hit on the most important ones. First, the US must state that a stable, constructive relationship between China and the US is in the interest of the Chinese and American peoples and contributes to peace in Asia and the world. Second, the US does not desire to weaken or overturn China’s government and does not support Taiwanese independence. Third, despite the great strides in cross-strait relations made since the normalization of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, the US believes that conditions have not yet been created for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Fourth, the US thinks that all parties should display patience, eschew any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and avoid actions that would compromise prospects for peaceful resolution. In this regard, the US attaches great importance to China’s declaration that its fundamental policy is to strive for peaceful unification.

Fifth, the US will support Taiwan in the event of an attack, but Taiwan’s defense is primarily up to the Taiwanese. This would remove the US threat of military force and stress peace as an option. Sixth, the US should state it does not intend to infringe on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, interfere in China’s internal affairs, or pursue a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.” However, the US will continue to maintain strong cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people in Taiwan.

Let’s hope our leaders will follow Swaine’s suggestions for engagement, competition, and diplomacy because a war with China would be disastrous for the US, China, Taiwan, and the whole world.

Jason Sibert of St. Louis, Mo., is the Lead Writer for the Peace Economy. St. Louis, Mo. Email jasonsibert@hotmail.com.

From The Progressive Populist, July 1-15, 2024

Populist.com