It feels like the ground shifted under rural America since President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid.
Vice President Kamala Harris is off to an electrifying start, tying or leading Donald Trump in poll averages across a half-dozen swing states. Picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a running mate energized rural Democrats who have been in hiding the past eight years.
The Trump flags are a bit tattered and limp. The signs are not as many or as big as 2016. The energy levels might have reversed.
Iowa Democrats are not drunk enough to think that Harris could carry the Tall Corn State. After Walz was introduced, the state party was overwhelmed with volunteer calls. They are encouraged that they can pick up seats in the legislature and flip one or two congressional seats if Harris can stay within single digits of Trump in Iowa. They did not hold such high hopes just a few weeks ago.
The last Iowa Poll showed that Trump had a 12-point lead over Biden.
I called around to friends like Rep. J.D. Scholten of Sioux City and Walt Bradley of Algona, who mingle among Trump supporters. They agree the atmospherics have changed.
“They’re definitely feeling it,” Walt said. “Not as loud.”
Social media posts are not as voluminous or as ardent with Biden out of the picture. Hurling vulgarities against Harris is a dicey proposition, and swift-boating Walz hasn’t worked. He is not John Kerry from Massachusetts. He is the Guardsman from Mankato who actually does know how to handle a semi-automatic weapon and craves to shoot turkeys. He coached linebackers. “Sleep when you’re dead,” he advises.
“Mind your own damn business” has a ring to it in Kossuth County, which used to support both parties. That hasn’t been true for a few years.
There may be a breath of life wafting through for the long frustrated. Not to get carried away, but …
Scholten remembers that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice, and that Scholten came close to beating Rep. Steve King. He believes that Iowa could become a two-party state again if Democrats actually worked on rural voters, and paid more attention to places like Waterloo and Decorah.
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Hull, faces no clear and present danger from Democratic challenger Ryan Melton in the Fourth Congressional District. Republicans are not crazy about Feenstra, like they used to be about King. If Scholten or Melton had money they could be dangerous, or at least muck things up. If you can hold down the rural red wave, candidates challenging for the legislature in places like Oelwein or Clinton at least stand a chance.
Democratic hopes were not rekindled by any policy paper.
They say it’s a vibe.
Rural voters are open to the idea that Democrats could share their values when you present them with a you-betcha candidate like Walz.
It has been drilled into our heads that Democrats only care about illegal immigrants, gays and single cat ladies. Voters outside the bicoastal metroplexes are eager to hear about fair wages, better health care and clean water regardless of identity politics. They’re ready to knock down hurdles standing in the way of getting a fair shake, and like the sound of keeping the government out of your damn business.
Harris just laid out a broadly populist economic agenda that fared well at the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago, from whence you can almost see Wisconsin and Michigan. Walz for sure can see them and does know how to talk naturally in the Upper Midwest vernacular. He can get disaffected rural voters to at least give a listen.
They are listening. They don’t like book bans and school vouchers. They like tax cuts and better healthcare. They don’t want reeking air that drives children to asthma. They don’t want the government in the exam room. They know we can bring health costs under control while improving access and quality by putting the patient first, not the insurance company.
Harris is putting North Carolina in play. She is approaching a tie with Trump in Florida. Iowa is the Florida of the North, Governors Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds agree. Voters in small towns widely rejected the Moms for Liberty and their playbook. They would vote against snarky Reynolds two years hence if her opponent has money and a clue what motivates Atlantic and Audubon.
Iowa is set to stay squarely in the Trump camp, simply for lack of effort on the part of Democrats. The tenor has changed nonetheless. Rural voters sick of government overreach and intrusion went from abject despair to cautious optimism within three weeks. They could be hopeless again in three weeks, but it just doesn’t feel that way.
Art Cullen is editor and publisher of the Storm Lake Times Pilot in northwest Iowa (stormlake.com). He won the Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing in 2017 and is author of the book “Storm Lake: A Chronicle of Change, Resilience, and Hope from America’s Heartland.” Email times@stormlake.com.
From The Progressive Populist, September 15, 2024
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