Beyond the 1.5°C Threshold: Deepening The Climate Crisis

By N. GUNASEKARAN

The global temperature datasets from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), NASA and the Met Office have revealed a shocking fact that the global average temperature exceeded 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024. It may be recalled that the Paris Agreement, adopted at the Paris summit 2015, pledged to limit global warming below 1.5°C (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. This target was established to curb the increasing trend of global warming and to mitigate severe environmental impacts. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold poses many risks, including the further concentration of greenhouse gases with their associated consequences. The prolonged surpassing of the critical threshold of 1.5°C must be prevented.At this juncture, sustained efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to avoid further environmental and societal repercussions.

The current climate crisis should be addressed collectively as a common concern of humanity. However, given the global scenario,marked by persistent inequality between nations, advanced countries have a greater responsibility to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.The Group of Seven (G7), comprising the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy were historically the largest emitters of carbon dioxide. They achieved early industrialization and continue to engage in high levels of economic activity. They possess the necessary resources and technologies to reduce emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources.

In contrast, the Global South that includes the countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America is currently undergoing rapid urbanization and industrialization and their carbon dioxide emissions are increasing. But they have fewer resources and limited access to advanced technologies for mitigating their emissions.

Despite the historical reality that climate change is not the creation of developing countries, many of these nations have committed to reducing emissions in exchange for technology transfer and financial assistance. In all negotiations over climate treaties, the G7 countries held an advantageous position consistently. They have defined the agenda, rules, and procedures for implementation. Moreover, the approach to addressing climate change has often focused on the symptoms rather than the root causes. G7 countries have been taking advantage of this flawed approach. In fact, the rich and elite group of countries have largely absolved themselves of significant responsibility for climate change. Moreover, the promise of providing financial support for developing countries by 2035 was a distant and uncertain prospect.

The developed countries who shirked the responsibility for addressing climate change are mainly former colonial powers. Through their historical global dominance and policies of colonial plunder, they have overused the common atmospheric resources in a disproportionate manner. Justice demands that they bear a greater obligation in efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and mitigate the destructive consequences of climate change. However, it should be recognized that the developing and least developed countries share some responsibility in reducing the emissions in spite of their economic underdevelopment, challenges of sustainable development, eradication of poverty and overcoming centuries-old backwardness.

Rapid industrialization by advanced countries contributed to three-quarters of global emissions and the consumption of natural resources. Significant differences exist between G7 countries and the Global South in terms of industrialization and urbanization patterns, as well as their natural resources.The Global South, including the poorer countries in Asia, represents four-fifths of the global population and accounts for half the GDP. The G7 countries, representing one-fifth of the global population consumed three-quarters of world’s resources in the 1950s, with the US alone consuming 40% of the total. Still,they remain in an advantageous position to exploit the natural resources.According to a report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, developed countries might be emitting an additional 3.7 gigatons of CO2 by 2030, representing 38% increase over their reduction targets. This would further aggravate the global climate crisis

Particularly, Asian countries are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. People across Asia are already experiencing an increase in disasters, such as more frequent and severe heat waves, rising sea levels and floods. More than 63 million people in East and South Asia have already faced significant losses. Coastal populations in Asia are at greater risk without adequate coastal protection measures.

The only way to reduce global warming is by providing financial support to developing countries to offset their losses due to emission reduction efforts. Climate justice demands that developed countries, as the historically main contributors to the current climate crisis and the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, should take responsibility by supporting developing countries financially.

The urgency of the moment requires immediate, large-scale emission reductions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already warned that the 1.5°C warming threshold could become unattainable within this decade without such large-scale reductions. Now,the main concern of the people across the globe is about the fossil-fuel-centric policies of Donald Trump and his ways of prioritizing short-term economic gains. By implementing Trump’s policies, the US would increase its emissions by a billion tons. In such a situation, the target of 1.5°C warming threshold is impossible to achieve.

The developing countries should coordinate their efforts to fructify effective, global climate action. Recently, the BRICS (an intergovernmental organization that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries played a very constructive role in advancing global climate diplomacy, and for sustainable development. The developing countries and least developed countries should unite themselves in BRICS-like formations to exert pressure on the advanced, rich countries. Meanwhile, working people in both developing and developed countries must come together to champion for the urgent cause of saving our planet.

N. Gunasekaran is a political activist and writer in Chennai, India. Email gunatn@gmail.com

From The Progressive Populist, February 15, 2025

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