Your Independent Journal from the Heartland
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the world entered a period of unipolarity led by the United States.
The US set the rules of the game in terms of international relations and engaged in illegal invasions of Iraq and Libya. Then, things changed. In fact, things changed a lot. In 2011 — Barry Posen, a professor at the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology, argued that unipolarity was on the wane and the international world order was shifting towards multipolarity. That year, China’s GDP was $7.5 trillion, half that of the USA at $15.6 trillion, with per capita income in China at $5,617 against USA’s $12,681, as stated by writer Anjum Ibrahim in her story “Economic Diplomacy is the Way Forward” in Business Recorder Nov. 25.
Posen’s prognosis was based on the fact that China would soon catch up, as it was registering a growth of 9.6% as opposed to the USA’s growth of 1.56%. He was proven right, and by 2019, the GDP gap between China and the USA further narrowed, with the former registering $14.28 trillion against the USA’s $21.57 trillion.
That same year, 2019, in the issue of International Security dated April 1, 2019, John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, wrote that “the coming of unipolarity in the wake of the Cold War allowed the victorious West—with the United States taking the lead—to begin building a truly liberal international order.”
Ibrahim told readers what became of the order: “The hope was that it would act as a handmaiden for a peaceful and prosperous world … starting around 2005, the order began to encounter serious problems, which have multiplied with time, to the point where it has begun to collapse. This outcome should have been foreseen, as the order had within it the seeds of its own destruction and thus was destined to fail sooner rather than later … The attempt by the United States and its allies to create a liberal international order faced three main problems.”
First, it required liberal states in the system, especially the US, to pursue a policy of regime change (Iraq and Libya) that was almost certain to fail in an era in which nationalism, with its emphasis on sovereignty and self-determination. Second, by pushing for the free movement of people across borders and delegating decision-making authority to international institutions, the expanding liberal order caused political problems inside the so-called liberal states themselves, with opposition to immigration fueling anti-immigration movements and right-wing populism (Trumpism in the US). Third, although some people and countries benefited from hyper-globalization (the very rich), it ultimately caused significant economic and political issues inside liberal democracies, eventually leading to an erosion of support for the so-called liberal international order — populist-right parties and their isolationism and trade protectionism.
The current international tensions led to a new Cold War between the US and the China-Russia orbit, with the orbit trying to drive competitors out of their sphere of influence. The big question is how we can defuse the tensions, prevent a third world war, and move to an international system defined by law. First, the world’s power centers realize their power is limited. Russia must halt its westward expansion, and China must not invade Taiwan. In addition, the US should commit itself to no more episodes like the Iraq War and to being a model for the democratic form of life so that it can spread, hopefully, to authoritarian and totalitarian states. Also, right-wing populism must be defeated within our borders. Remember, if history is any guide, democracies rarely war against each other, at least not so far.
Power in an international system must be used for good or bad. In time, if powers learn to respect each other’s spheres of influence, and if democratic ways win the argument, then maybe something like Franklin Roosevelt’s Four Policemen will emerge, and each power will be confined to policing its sphere of influence to maintain peace.
Ideas are an essential concept in international relations. Whose ideas will win?
Jason Sibert of St. Louis is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project.
